Emissions and Atmospheric CO2 Stabilization: Long-Term Limits and Paths |
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Authors: | Kheshgi Haroon S Smith Steven J Edmonds James A |
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Institution: | (1) ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company, 1545 Route 22 East, Annandale, NJ 08801, USA;(2) Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, University of Maryland, 8400 Baltimore Avenue, Suite 201, College Park, MD 20740, USA |
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Abstract: | The objective of stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations is often envisioned as a monotonic approach to higher constant concentrations. For CO2 to approach a constant concentration over a finite time, CO2 emissions must peak and then gradually approach zero over 1,000+ years, regardless of the concentration level. While this intellectual architecture has proved useful, we suggest consideration of a broader range of scenarios, including ones in which net emissions decline to zero over a finite period of time resulting in a maximum CO2 concentration followed by a long-term decline to a lower level. Carbon cycle model results illustrate these scenarios. |
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Keywords: | carbon cycle CO2 emissions scenario stabilization |
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