Including adaptation costs and climate change damages in evaluating post-2012 burden-sharing regimes |
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Authors: | Andries F Hof Michel G J den Elzen Detlef P van Vuuren |
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Institution: | (1) Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Global Sustainability and Climate, P.O. Box 303, 3720, AH, Bilthoven, The Netherlands |
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Abstract: | Many studies have been published to evaluate the consequences of different post-2012 emission allocation regimes on regional
mitigation costs. This paper goes one step further and evaluates not only mitigation costs, but also adaptation costs and
climate change damages. Three post-2012 emission allocation regimes (Contraction & Convergence, Multistage and Common but
differentiated convergence) and two climate targets (2°C and 3°C above the pre-industrial level) are considered. This explorative
analysis shows that including these other cost categories could lead to different perspectives on the outcomes of allocation
regimes. Up to 2050, the poorest regions have negative mitigation costs under all allocation regimes considered, as they benefit
from emission trading. However, these regions also suffer from the most severe climate impacts. As such, the financial flows
due to emission trading from developed to developing countries created under these allocation regimes could also be interpreted
as compensation of climate change damages and adaptation costs. In the longer run, the sum of climate change damages, adaptation
costs and mitigation costs are the highest in the poorest regions of Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, for both climate targets
and practically all emission allocation regimes. |
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