The double trade-off between adaptation and mitigation for sea level rise: an application of FUND |
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| Authors: | " target="_blank">Richard S J Tol |
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| Institution: | (1) Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change, Centre for Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Economic and Social Research Institute, Hamburg, Germany;(2) Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, The Netherlands;(3) Center for Integrated Study of the Human Dimensions of Global Change, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, USA;(4) Whitaker Square, Sir John Rogerson’s Quay, Dublin, 2, Ireland |
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| Abstract: | This paper studies the effects of adaptation and mitigation on the impacts of sea level rise. Without adaptation, the impact
of sea level rise would be substantial, almost wiping out entire countries by 2100, although the globally aggregate effect
is much smaller. Adaptation would reduce potential impacts by a factor 10–100. Adaptation would come at a minor cost compared
to the damage avoided. As adaptation depends on socio-economic status, the rank order of most vulnerable countries is different
than the rank order of most exposed countries. Because the momentum of sea level rise is so large, mitigation can reduce impacts
only to a limited extent. Stabilising carbon dioxide concentrations at 550 ppm would cut impacts in 2100 by about 10%. However,
the costs of emission reduction lower the avoided impacts by up to 25% (average 10%). This is partly due to the reduced availability
of resources for adaptation, and partly due to the increased sensitivity to wetland loss by adaptation.
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| Keywords: | Adaptation Mitigation Sea level rise |
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