基于MRIO模型的中国省级区域碳足迹及碳转移研究

科学识别我国各省区碳足迹及省际间碳转移特点,对于促进全国统一碳市场的建立和运行具有重要意义.基于MRIO模型,自主编制了包括12个省级区域、14个行业的2007年中国区域间投入产出表,测算了这12个省级区域的碳足迹特点和省际间碳转移情况.结果显示:由于经济发展水平、产业结构、能源结构、工业化程度和人口等因素的不同,各省碳足迹特点呈现较大差异;我国存在由能源资源丰富地区和重化工业密集省份向经济发达地区和资源短缺省份的碳转移现象,其中,河北、山西和内蒙古三省对外省区呈现碳净调出态势且调出量较大;省际间距离越近,产业结构互补性越强,则省际间的碳转移规模也就越大.当前,我国应加快推进能源结构调整和产业升级转型;强化区域内省际之间的相互协作,降低碳减排成本;在未来全国碳排放权交易体系下,应综合考虑各省的碳足迹水平和省区间碳转移情况,科学界定各省区的碳排放责任,公平合理地分配碳排放配额,以促进我国碳市场的顺利运行.

Carbon footprint and carbon transfer at provincial level of China based on MRIO model

Identifying the characteristics of carbon footprint in different provinces and the inter-provincial carbon transfer is very important for establishment and operation of national carbon market in China. Based on the MRIO model, this paper developed the 2007 multi-regional input-output table with 12 provincial regions and 14 industries of China, and analyzed carbon footprint and inter-provincial carbon transfer of the 12 regions. The results show that the characteristics of carbon footprint of different provinces vary significantly because of the differences of economic development level, industrial structure, energy intensity, industrialized level and population, etc. Carbon transfer shows a tendency from the provinces with rich natural resources and heavy chemical industries to those with high economic development level and poor natural resources. Specifically, the three provinces, i.e. Hebei, Shanxi and Inner Mongolia, suffered large amount of net carbon emission transfer to other provinces. The scales of inter-provincial carbon transfer correlate negatively with distance while positively with complementarity of industry structure among different provinces. At present, China should accelerate energy structure adjustment as well as industrial structure improvement, and consolidate inter-provincial coordination on carbon mitigation to cut the cost of carbon emission reduction. Facing future national carbon emission trading system, China should comprehensively consider the characteristics of the carbon footprint of different provinces and the inter-provincial carbon transfer, scientifically define the responsibilities of each province on carbon mitigation, and allocate carbon emission quotas in a fair and reasonable manner to ensure the successful operation of the national carbon market of China.