中国雾霾污染的社会经济影响因素——基于空间面板数据EBA模型实证研究

依据环境经济学理论,运用空间极限边界分析模型,采用中国2003—2013年30个省际面板数据,从经济、人口、政策三方面入手,遴选尽可能多的社会经济变量,探究中国雾霾污染的空间相关性及其影响因素.结果显示中国雾霾污染具有空间溢出效应且京津冀、长三角及中东部部分地区出现高-高集聚现象.产业结构、能源消费结构、城市建筑施工、人口规模以及汽车保有量对雾霾污染具有抗干扰性的"稳健性"影响.最后依据实证结论提出了一些政策建议,如进行雾霾区域联合防治,转变经济发展方式,清洁高效使用煤炭,合理布局城市人口等.这些建议为政府制定治理雾霾政策提供决策依据和参考.

Socio-economic influential factors of haze pollution in china: Empirical study by eba model using spatial panel data

Based on the environmental economics theory, this paper applies extreme boundary analysis (EBA) model to analyze the spatial correlation of haze pollution in China and its influential factors by selecting panel data from 30 Chinese provinces in the period of 2003 to 2013. In order to make a comprehensive analysis, we select six socio-economic factors in the aspects of economic, energy, industry, transportation, population and policy. The result shows that there exists a spatial spillover effect of haze pollution in Chinese provinces and "high-high" polarization phenomenon in Jing-Jin-Ji area, Yangtze River Delta and some other regions in the central and eastern China. We also find that some factors have anti-disturbance "robustness" impacts on the haze pollution, such as industrial structure, urban construction, energy consumption structure, vehicles ownership and population size. Finally, on the basis of empirical results, we propose policies and suggestions on haze control, i.e., regional joint prevention and control of haze, restructuring of economic development, use of coal efficiently and cleanly, and rational distribution of urban population.