基于GD_CGE模型的广东省碳排放权交易政策评估

为了评估广东省碳排放权交易制度设计对控制二氧化碳排放及经济发展可能发挥的作用,本文建立GD_CGE模型研究了在碳强度约束目标下碳交易政策的实施效果.首先分析了无减排约束和有减排约束情景下广东宏观经济(GDP)、能源消费总量和碳排放总量的发展趋势;进一步扩展减排约束情景,考察了在全省碳强度减排目标约束下,把电力、水泥、石化、钢铁、造纸、纺织六大部门纳入碳交易体系,并分别按照历史法和潜力法确定行业碳排放约束上限时,实施碳交易政策对宏观经济和能源消费量的影响,模拟了碳市场的交易情况和碳价格.结果表明:在碳强度目标控制下,实施碳交易政策可显著降低部门的减排成本,减小控制碳排放可能对全省GDP的影响,起到了促进广东省低成本节能减排的作用.

Assessment of Guangdong carbon emission trading based on GD_CGE model

In order to evaluate the impact on carbon emissions and economy of Guangdong Province carbon emission trading system (ETS), this paper establishes the GD_CGE model to simulate the effect of carbon emission reduction through ETS under the carbon intensity target. First of all, non-abatement scenario and abatement scenario are constructed. Comparison on the economic growth and energy consumption with and without abatement target is conducted through the GD_CGE model. Furthermore, with an abatement target, the allocation of carbon allowance based on historic emission and reduction potentials among six energy intensive sectors on GDP growth and energy consumption are analyzed respectively, and the impacts of the allocation methods on the carbon trade volume and price are carried out with the implementation of the ETS. The results show that with an abatement target, implementation the ETS can reduce the abatement cost and decrease the GDP loss, which develops a cost effective way to energy saving and carbon reduction.