不确定性下区域规划环评方案优化方法框架研究

为了弥补以往规划环评方案中存在的两个缺陷,构建了不确定性条件下融合型和调整型区域规划环评方案优化方法框架,从而消除规划方案本身潜在的环境影响,且实现了规划方案和环境保护补救措施的系统优化及其不确定性风险决策.同时,从方法学上,基于强化区间优化模型建立了不确定性条件下规划方案和补救措施的双层优化方法.最后,针对郑州市土地利用总体规划(1997～2010年)的规划环评,以生态系统服务功能价值的最大化为目标,以郑州市土地资源、经济发展(GDP)和环境指标(土地承载COD排放总量)为约束条件,得到不同风险水平下土地利用规划优化方案.结果表明:①优化后的规划方案的生态系统服务功能价值高于原规划方案,约为原规划方案的1.45～1.52倍,且完全能满足郑州市2010年GDP目标;②有必要在未来融合型或调整型规划环评融入不确定性优化思想,且需要为决策者提供不同环境风险水平下的决策方案.

An uncertainty-based modeling framework for countermeasure optimization in strategic environmental assessment of regional plans

An uncertainty-based modeling framework was proposed for countermeasure optimization in strategic environmental assessment(SEA)of regional plans.We aimed to solve the shortcomings of traditional SEAby minimizing the plans' potential environmental impacts and,thereby,provide the optimal countermeasures and risk-based decisions.Atwo-level optimization approach was developed by introducing the Enhanced Interval Linear Programming(EILP)algorithm.The proposed modeling framework was applied for the SEAof Zhengzhou landuse master plan,with the maximum ecosystem services values(ESV)as the objective function and the land resources,economic development,and total CODload as the constraints.The model produced the solutions for optimal land use under various uncertainty levels.The model results showed that(a)the ESVof the optimal solutions is 1.45 to 1.52 times higher than the traditional one,which can also meet the GDPgoal in the year 2010;and(b)it is necessary to apply the proposed modeling framework to following SEAcases to provide alternative solutions for the uncertain decision variables.