后京都时代全球碳排放权配额分配模拟研究

采用自底向上和自顶向下两种建模方法,构建了一个全球碳排放权配额分配模型.通过对排放水平控制方案、单一原则方案和加权原则方案的情景模拟和分析,结果发现:当前全球试图通过气候谈判制定的减排方案是一种排放水平控制方案.由于在减排方式、基准年份和减排比例方面各国仍无法统一,该方案具有很大的不确定性.虽然单一原则方案可在某一指标上体现公平,但各区域对不同原则的偏好程度差异悬殊,甚至在某些原则下可能出现极端的分配结果,如人均累计碳排放均等原则.与前两类方案相比,加权原则方案更具公平性、可行性、可扩展性和可操作性.实施加权原则方案应尽可能多地涵盖不同原则,并以投票方式决定相关原则权重.

Simulation on carbon permits allocation in the post-Kyoto era

By using the top-down and bottom-up allocation methods, a global carbon permits allocation model was established in this paper. With the comparison on the emissions level control scenario, single principle scenario and weighted principle scenario, we found that:1the current mitigation schemes under global climate negotiation are mainly based on the emissions level control. Due to the variations on mitigation patterns, mitigation baselines and mitigation rates among different countries, there are huge uncertainties in the emissions level control scenario.2Although the single principle scenario can ensure fairness in one aspect, there are still great differences in principle preferences among different regions. Some principles can even lead to extremely different results, such as the principle of equal cumulative per capita emissions;3Comparing to the emissions level control scenario and single principle scenario, the weighted principle scenario is considered to be better in terms of equality, feasibility, expandability and practicality. In the weighted principle scenario, it's encouraged to cover as many principles as possible, and the principle weight should be determined by voting.