四川省2008-2014年水泥行业大气污染物排放清单及时空分布特征

根据收集的四川省水泥行业活动水平数据及排放因子，建立了四川省2008-2014年水泥行业大气污染物排放清单，分析其年际变化趋势，识别时间分布特征，并利用GIS建立了高分辨率的网格化清单.此外，对水泥行业污染物排放的不确定性范围进行了定量估算.结果表明，2008-2014年水泥行业SO₂和NO_x排放显著增长，而PM₁₀和PM_2.5排放呈下降趋势；成都及周边地区以及川东北地区是水泥污染排放的主要贡献地区，大部分城市的污染变化与全省的情况基本一致；新型干法水泥产量比重由2008年的41%增长至2014年的88%，随之各污染物排放占比也显著增长，2014年约达到90%；水泥NO_x排放对空气NO₂质量浓度有一定影响，变化趋势较为一致，相比而言，PM₁₀质量浓度受水泥排放影响较小；水泥产量月变化特征不明显，年初1、2月份产量较低，下半年产量高于上半年；在空间分布上，污染物排放主要集中在德阳-绵阳、眉山-乐山及内江-自贡等地；水泥行业排放清单的不确定性主要来源于污染物去除效率及排放因子的选取，其中，PM_2.5不确定性范围较大，约为-64%~103%，SO₂的不确定性范围较小，为-45%~45%.

Cement industrial emission inventories development and their temporal and spatial distribution for Sichuan Province from 2008 to 2014

The key objective of this paper is to develop multi-year emission inventories for cement industries in Sichuan from 2008 to 2014. Activity data and emission factors of cement industries of Sichuan were collected for the study period and used for emission inventories development, trend analysis, and temporal and spatial distribution analysis. The Geographic Information System (GIS) technology was then used to develop grid-based emission inventories with high temporal and spatial resolutions. Furthermore, the uncertainties associated with the developed emission inventories were quantified. The results showed that SO₂ and NO_x emissions continued to increase over the study period while PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 emissions exhibited a decrease trend. The urban and sub-urban areas of Chengdu and the northeastern part of Sichuan were the hot-spots for cement industrial emissions. The individual trends for emissions changes for most cities in Sichuan were consistent with that when the entire province was considered as a whole. As the cement production percentage from precalciner kilns over the entire cement productions had increased from 41% in 2008 to 88% in 2014, the associated emissions also continued to increase and reached approximately 90% of the total emissions in 2014. The monthly variation of cement productions was relatively small with slightly less in January and February. The second half of the year generally produced more than the first half of the year. For spatial distribution, emissions from cement industries were mainly contributed by the areas of Deyang-Mianyang, Meishan-Leshan and Neijiang-Zigong. Removal efficiencies of emission control devices deployed in the kilns, and the emission factors used for emission inventories development were the two key sources for uncertainty associated with developed inventories. There were relatively large uncertainties for PM_2.5 emission estimates but relatively small uncertainties for SO₂ emission estimates, ranging from -64% to 103% and -45% to 45%, respectively.