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中国城市居民生活能源碳排放的时空格局及影响因素分析
引用本文:万文玉,赵雪雁,王伟军.中国城市居民生活能源碳排放的时空格局及影响因素分析[J].环境科学学报,2016,36(9):3445-3455.
作者姓名:万文玉  赵雪雁  王伟军
作者单位:西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院, 兰州 730070,西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院, 兰州 730070,西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院, 兰州 730070
基金项目:国家自然科学基金(No.41361106,41661115);教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划(No.NCET-11-0910);甘肃省高校基本科研业务费项目
摘    要:随着经济社会的发展与人民生活水平的提高,生活用能强度逐年增大,城市居民生活能源碳排放日益成为碳排放的新增长点.本文采用Theil指数、空间自相关分析了我国城市居民生活能源碳排放的时空格局演变特征,并利用STIRPAT模型分析了影响城市居民生活能源碳排放的主要因素.结果表明:12001—2012年我国城市居民生活能源碳排放总量及人均生活能源碳排放量均呈增长趋势,其年增长率分别为9.69%、3.29%;2八大经济区域间城市居民人均生活能源碳排放的差异是构成我国城市居民人均生活能源碳排放总体差异的主要原因,其对总差异的贡献率达到了57.90%;3我国城市居民人均生活能源碳排放具有显著的空间正相关性,2001—2012年间城市居民人均生活能源碳排放的"冷点"区变化较为稳定,主要分布在东部和南部经济区,而"热点"区主要分布在西北、东北和黄河中游经济区;4城市人口规模、城市居民可支配收入、城市居民生活消费支出、城市居民年龄结构均对城市居民生活能源碳排放量具有加剧作用,而城市居民能源消费结构具有减缓作用,且北方城市居民生活能源碳排放量明显高于南方;5现有样本数据支持环境Kuznets曲线假说,即随着经济的发展,城市居民生活能源碳排放量存在转折点.

关 键 词:城市居民  生活能源  碳排放  时空格局  影响因素
收稿时间:2015/10/22 0:00:00
修稿时间:2015/12/7 0:00:00

Spatial-temporal patterns and impact factors analysis on carbon emissions from energy consumption of urban residents in China
WAN Wenyu,ZHAO Xueyan and WANG Weijun.Spatial-temporal patterns and impact factors analysis on carbon emissions from energy consumption of urban residents in China[J].Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae,2016,36(9):3445-3455.
Authors:WAN Wenyu  ZHAO Xueyan and WANG Weijun
Institution:College of Geography and Environmental Science, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070,College of Geography and Environmental Science, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070 and College of Geography and Environmental Science, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070
Abstract:Along with the development of economy and the improvement of people''s living standard, the life energy consumption is in an increasing trend, and carbon emissions from residents life energy consumption becomes a new growth point of carbon emissions. By using Theil index and spatial autocorrelation analysis methods, the characteristics, regional disparity and spatial-temporal pattern evolution of carbon emissions from life energy consumption in China were analyzed on regional and provincial levels from 2001 to 2012. The STIRPAT model was then used to simulate the impact of the factors, e.g. population, affluence level, age structure of population, and electric energy proportion, on carbon emissions. The urban residents life energy total carbon emissions and per capita carbon emissions showed an upward tendency and increased by 9.69%, 3.29%, respectively. Theil index analysis indicated that the expanding total disparity of carbon emissions was primarily due to interregional inequalities, and the contribution rate reached 57.90% to total variance. Urban residents life energy per capita carbon emissions in provincial China was positively correlated with the characteristics of space agglomeration, and the distribution was not completely random. "Cold spot" areas of carbon emissions were relatively stable and mainly distributed in the east and south areas, while the "Hot spot" areas were mainly distributed in the northwest, northeast and the middle reaches of Yellow River. Population, affluence level and age structure of population were the main driving factors of the carbon emissions from residents life energy consumption. Carbon emissions from urban residents'' life energy from the north were higher than the south. However, enhancing the electricity usage will slow down the carbon emissions of residents life energy consumption. The analysis result based on the sample data supported the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis.
Keywords:urban residents  energy consumption  carbon emissions  spatial-temporal pattern  impact factors
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