广东省非道路移动机械排放清单及不确定性研究

随着工业源和机动车等重点污染源减排空间的下降,非道路移动机械排放已成为大气污染防治领域的研究热点之一.本研究通过资料收集与实地调研,初步构建了广东省非道路机械基于机型的活动水平数据集、综合排放因子及时空分配因子,采用自下而上的排放因子法,建立了广东省2014年非道路移动机械排放清单.并利用蒙特卡洛方法定量评估清单结果不确定性.结果表明,广东省2014年非道路移动机械的SO_2、NO_x、PM_(10)、PM_(2.5)、VOCs和CO排放总量分别为4.9、61.1、4.8、4.5、11.6 kt和45.1 kt.其中,农业机械排放以四轮农用运输车和小型拖拉机为主,贡献率分别为38.4%和18.0%,主要分布在非珠三角的农村地区;工程机械排放以建筑运输车和挖掘机为主,贡献率分别为40.1%和33.9%,主要分布在珠三角地区.此外,不确定性分析结果显示VOCs和PM_(2.5)排放结果不确定性较大,不确定性范围分别为-25.2%~41.7%和-23.4%~32.8%.NO_x不确定性较小,不确定性范围为-15.2%~17.5%.

A sector-based emission inventory and its uncertainty from non-road mobile machinery in Guangdong Province, China

With the shrink of emission reduction potential on major sources (e.g., industrial sector and vehicle), emissions from non-road mobile machinery have become one of the research hotspots in the field of air pollution control. Through data mining and field surveys, this study developed a sector-based activity dataset, well-considered emission factors and temporal and spatital profiles in Guangdong Province. On this basis, a non-road mobile machinery emission inventory from Guangdong Province was also developed by using a bottom-up method. Results showed that total emission amounts of sulfur dioxide (SO₂), nitrogen oxides (NO_x), particulate matter (PM₁₀ and PM_2.5), volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and carbon monoxide (CO) from non-road mobile machinery in Guangdong Province in 2014 were 4.9, 61.1, 4.8, 4.5, 11.6 kt and 45.1 kt, respectively. Among them, four-wheeled agricultural machinery and construction machinery were the two important contributors to agricultural machinery emissions, accounting for 38.4% and 18.0%, respectively. Their emissions were mainly distributed in the rural areas of the non-Pearl River Delta region. Engineering machinery emissions were mostly from slag vehicles and excavators with the proportion of 40.1% and 33.9%, respectively, and intensive emissions were concentrated in the Pearl River Delta region. VOCs and PM_2.5 emissions were more uncertain with the range being -23.2%~-41.7% and -23.9%~-32.8%, respectively, and the uncertainty of NO_x was smaller with the range being -15.2%~17.5%.