城市适度人口规模的多目标决策方法及应用

适度的人口规模是城市可持续发展的关键.针对人口研究的系统性和复杂性,本文提出一种城市适度人口规模的多目标决策方法,基于不同城市发展情景下资源要素供给状况与城市人口需求特征,计算供需关系共同制约下的适度人口规模.以北京市通州新城为案例应用该模型,结果表明,综合决策经济发展、社会生活和生态环境等影响要素,通州新城到2020年适度人口规模约为75～78万,规划期内就业、社会保障、供水、住房为约束人口规模的主要因素.

A multi-objective decision making approach to determine optimum urban population size and its application to the Tongzhou District of Beijing

Making informed decisions on urban demographics plays a key role in ensuring urban sustainability in the long run. In this article, focusing on systematic population studies, we integrate the Analytical Hierarchy Process approach and supply-demand analysis to present a multi-objective decision making method for optimum urban population scale. An empirical case study was conducted in the Tongzhou area of Beijing to explore its optimum population size. The results show that, considering the economic, social and environmental determinants, the local optimum population scale in 2020 is expected to amount to around 0.75~0.78 million. Employment, social security, water supply and housing may become the main constraints to the formation of a local demographic community over the planning period.