|
|||||
|
|
| 基于非线性响应函数和蒙特卡洛模拟的滇池流域污染负荷削减情景分析 | |
| 引用本文： | 邹锐,朱翔,贺彬,赵磊,周丰,嵇晓燕,刘永,郭怀成.基于非线性响应函数和蒙特卡洛模拟的滇池流域污染负荷削减情景分析[J].环境科学学报,2011,31(10):2312-2318. |
| 作者姓名： | 邹锐 朱翔 贺彬 赵磊 周丰 嵇晓燕 刘永 郭怀成 |
| 作者单位： | 1. Tetra Tech,Inc.10306 Eaton Place,Ste340,Fairfax,VA22030,USA／昆明诚锐环保科技有限公司,昆明650101 2. 中国昆明高原湖泊国际研究中心,昆明,650034 3. 北京大学环境科学与工程学院水沙科学教育部重点实验室,北京,100871 4. 中国环境监测总站,北京,100012 |
| 基金项目： | 国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项(No.2008ZX07102-001) |
| 摘 要： | 为定量了解滇池外海水质对流域污染负荷削减率的响应变化程度,并评估相关决策的潜在风险,在长期的水质模拟结果基础之上,本文使用内嵌非线性响应函数的蒙特卡罗模拟方法,在2个不确定性水平下（5%和10%的变异范围）分析滇池外海为达到3个水质目标情景（Ⅲ类、Ⅳ类和Ⅴ类）的污染负荷削减及其不确定性.模型结果表明,在2种不确定性水平... |
| 关 键 词： | 负荷削减 蒙特卡洛 水质模型 情景分析 滇池 |
| 收稿时间： | 1/9/2011 12:00:00 AM |
| 修稿时间： | 2/1/2011 12:00:00 AM |
Uncertainty based load reduction scenario analysis for Lake Dianchi using nonlinear response function-embedded Monte Carlo simulation |
|
| ZOU Rui,ZHU Xiang,HE Bin,ZHAO Lei,ZHOU Feng,JI Xiaoyan,LIU Yong and GUO Huaicheng.Uncertainty based load reduction scenario analysis for Lake Dianchi using nonlinear response function-embedded Monte Carlo simulation[J].Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae,2011,31(10):2312-2318. | |
| Authors: | ZOU Rui ZHU Xiang HE Bin ZHAO Lei ZHOU Feng JI Xiaoyan LIU Yong and GUO Huaicheng |
| Institution: | 1. Tetra Tech, Inc. 10306 Eaton Place, Ste 340, Fairfax, VA 22030, USA;2. Kunming Challenger Technology, Ltd., Kunming 650101,Kunming International Center for Pleantu Lakes, Kunming 650034,Kunming International Center for Pleantu Lakes, Kunming 650034,Kunming International Center for Pleantu Lakes, Kunming 650034,College of Environmental Science and Engineering, the Key Laboratory of Water and Sediment Sciences Ministry of Education, Peking University, Beijing 100871,China National Environmental Monitoring Center, Beijing 100012,College of Environmental Science and Engineering, the Key Laboratory of Water and Sediment Sciences Ministry of Education, Peking University, Beijing 100871 and College of Environmental Science and Engineering, the Key Laboratory of Water and Sediment Sciences Ministry of Education, Peking University, Beijing 100871 |
| Abstract: | Water quality modeling can provide an effective way to determine permissible waste load and predict consequences of different waste load allocation scenarios,while related uncertainty analysis can provide decision makers useful information regarding the potential risk in decision makings.For Lake Dianchi,the key management problem is to determine how the water quality would respond to the load reduction in the watershed.To support risk based decision making,an analytical response function was derived based ... |
| Keywords: | load reduction Monte Carlo Simulation water quality modeling scenario analysis Lake Dianchi |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ | |
| 点击此处可从《环境科学学报》浏览原始摘要信息 | |
| 点击此处可从《环境科学学报》下载免费的PDF全文 | |