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基于LMDI中国省域氮氧化物减排与实现路径研究
引用本文:王丽琼.基于LMDI中国省域氮氧化物减排与实现路径研究[J].环境科学学报,2017,37(6):2394-2402.
作者姓名:王丽琼
作者单位:泉州师范学院资源与环境科学学院, 泉州 362000
基金项目:福建省中青年教师教育科研项目(No.JA15410)
摘    要:首先基于Kaya恒等式,利用对数平均Divisia指数分解模型(LMDI法)将氮氧化物排放分解为排放因子、能源强度、经济结构、能源结构和经济发展5个因素;其次通过模型得出的脱钩系数运用构建四象限法评价"十二五"期间中国30个省市脱钩空间差异,研究各省市氮氧化物减排表现、分析减排潜力和减排影响因素,为国家"十三五"制定差异化的区域氮氧化物减排目标和寻找多元化的氮氧化物减排途径提供有益参考.研究结果表明:经济增长是促进氮氧化物排放量增加的决定因素,能源强度降低是抑制氮氧化物增排的决定因素,经济结构优化和能源结构调整具有较大促进氮氧化物减排潜力;中国氮氧化物排放与经济增长脱钩空间分异明显,大部分省市经济发展与氮氧化物排放处于脱钩状态,部分省市弱脱钩状态.同时,中国氮氧化物排放与经济增长脱钩系数呈现逐年上升趋势,2010—2015年中国各省市氮氧化物排放脱钩空间分布由较弱、中脱钩为主至中、较强脱钩为主再到较强脱钩为主,呈现区域间"异质化"和区域内"均质化"的趋势.国家氮氧化物后续减排任务应多分解在中脱钩或弱脱钩(减排潜力大)省市,对相邻的省份制定协同减排计划,且主要通过提高能源利用效率、同时优化经济结构和能源消费结构实现其最优减排.

关 键 词:氮氧化物排放  因子分解  脱钩  减排
收稿时间:2016/8/14 0:00:00
修稿时间:2016/12/16 0:00:00

Investigation of NOx emissions reduction and its strategies over China's 30 provinces based on LMDI
WANG Liqiong.Investigation of NOx emissions reduction and its strategies over China''s 30 provinces based on LMDI[J].Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae,2017,37(6):2394-2402.
Authors:WANG Liqiong
Institution:School of Resources & Environmental Science, Quanzhou Normal University, Quanzhou 362000
Abstract:First, the changes in NOx emission at the provincial level were decomposed into 5 effects, i.e. NOx intensity effect, energy structure effect, energy intensity effect, economic structure effect and economic development effect, using the log-mean Divisia index (LMDI) technique based on the Kaya identity. The four-quadrant method based on provincial spatial disparities for NOx emission decoupling index was then employed to evaluate NOx emission reduction in 30 provinces from 2010 to 2015. Investigation of decoupling progress between economic growth and NOx emissions reduction potential and its influencing factors provides references for the development of differential regional objectives of NOx emission reduction and multiple emission reduction strategies during the "13th Five-year Plan". The decomposition result shows that economic growth is the decisive factor for the NOx emission increase, reduction of energy intensity is a major determinant of the NOx emission decrease, and the optimizations of economic structure and energy structure are conducive to NOx emission reduction. According to the evaluation, the decoupling indices between NOx emissions and economic growth in 30 provinces vary significantly. Most provinces have demonstrated significant achievement in decoupling their economic growth from NOx emission in the "12th Five-year period", while a few provinces only make small effort in decoupling progress. Moreover, NOx emission decoupling index in China shows a rising trend year by year, the regional distribution situation in 2010-2015 is from weak decoupling to middle decoupling and further to strong decoupling, inter-regional NOx emission decoupling has a tendency to be heterogeneous, while NOx emission decoupling over different provinces in the same region is being homogenized. Therefore, greater attention should be paid and more assistance should be offered to the lower-scoring provinces (with higher reduction potential) to enhance their efforts to decouple economic growth from NOx emissions, and the cooperative emission reduction plan should be proposed in adjacent provinces. Most provinces should concentrate their efforts on further reducing energy intensity, while measures to transfer economic structure and energy structure should also be considered.
Keywords:NOx emission  factors decomposition  decoupling  emission reduction
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