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湖泊富营养化组合评价的真值次数加权法
引用本文:谢平,陈海健,唐涛,李彬彬,雷旭,张波.湖泊富营养化组合评价的真值次数加权法[J].环境科学学报,2015,35(9):2910-2915.
作者姓名:谢平  陈海健  唐涛  李彬彬  雷旭  张波
作者单位:1. 武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室, 武汉 430072;2. 水资源安全保障湖北省协同创新中心, 武汉 430072,1. 武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室, 武汉 430072;2. 水资源安全保障湖北省协同创新中心, 武汉 430072,湖北省水文水资源局, 武汉 430071,1. 武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室, 武汉 430072;2. 水资源安全保障湖北省协同创新中心, 武汉 430072,1. 武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室, 武汉 430072;2. 水资源安全保障湖北省协同创新中心, 武汉 430072,1. 武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室, 武汉 430072;2. 水资源安全保障湖北省协同创新中心, 武汉 430072
基金项目:国家自然科学基金(No.51179131,51190094);广东省水利科技创新项目(No.2011-01);湖北省水利专项科研课题(No.HBSLKJZX201301)
摘    要:针对湖泊水体富营化评价方法具有的不确定性问题,提出了湖泊富营养化组合评价的真值次数加权法.该法的建立步骤分为3步:首先,根据富营养化评价标准,随机生成1000组富营养化水质指标样本,分别用灰色关联法、模糊评价法、打分统计法、经验频率法、贝叶斯方法、向量评价法6种单项方法进行富营养化评价;然后统计1000组样本中各单项方法的评价值与真值相同的次数,据此计算各单项评价方法在组合评价方法中所占的权重;最后利用权重值对6种单项评价值进行加权平均组合,从而得到真值次数加权法的组合评价结果.将真值次数加权法应用于全国30个湖泊的水体富营养化评价,结果表明,该法能有效降低单项评价方法的不确定性.

关 键 词:湖泊富营养化  不确定性  组合评价  真值次数加权法
收稿时间:2014/10/15 0:00:00
修稿时间:2014/11/24 0:00:00

Combination assessment method for lake-water Eutrophication base on the frequency of true value
XIE Ping,CHEN Haijian,TANG Tao,LI Binbin,LEI Xu and ZHANG Bo.Combination assessment method for lake-water Eutrophication base on the frequency of true value[J].Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae,2015,35(9):2910-2915.
Authors:XIE Ping  CHEN Haijian  TANG Tao  LI Binbin  LEI Xu and ZHANG Bo
Institution:1. State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072;2. Hubei Collaborative Innovation Center for Water Resource Security, Wuhan 430072,1. State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072;2. Hubei Collaborative Innovation Center for Water Resource Security, Wuhan 430072,Hydrology and Water Resources Survey Bureau of Hubei Province, Wuhan 430071,1. State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072;2. Hubei Collaborative Innovation Center for Water Resource Security, Wuhan 430072,1. State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072;2. Hubei Collaborative Innovation Center for Water Resource Security, Wuhan 430072 and 1. State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072;2. Hubei Collaborative Innovation Center for Water Resource Security, Wuhan 430072
Abstract:In this study, a truth value frequency weighted method for combination evaluation is proposed to deal with uncertainties in lake eutrophication evaluation. There are three steps for the combination evaluation. Firstly, 1000 groups of eutrophication water quality index samples are randomly chosen based on the eutrophication assessment criteria; then, six individual methods (including grey correlative method, fuzzy evaluation method, scoring statistics method, experience frequency method, Bayesian method, and vector evaluation method) are used for evaluating eutrophication levels of the samples, respectively. Secondly, the frequency that the evaluation value of each individual method equals to the truth value is figured out; the weight of each individual method in the combination method can then be calculated. Thirdly, weighted averages of the six individual evaluation values are combined to obtain the final results of combination evaluation of lake eutrophication. The developed combination method is applied to evaluating eutrophication levels of thirty lakes in China. Results indicate that it can effectively handle uncertainties in individual evaluation of lake eutrophication.
Keywords:lake eutrophication  uncertainties  combination evaluation  truth value frequency weighted method
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