降雨径流连续模拟参数全局灵敏性分析

长期连续模拟是客观评价城市排水系统性能、雨洪控制措施效果的重要方法之一.运用普适似然度法(Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation,简称GLUE),综合分析了暴雨管理模型(Storm Water Management Model,简称SWMM)在不同间隔降雨情景下的水量...

Global sensitivity analysis of a rainfall-runoff model using continuous simulation

Long-term continuous simulation is an important method to evaluate the performance of urban drainage systems and the effectiveness of stormwater management practices. Global sensitivity analysis was conducted using the algorithm of Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) for the water quantity and quality parameters in the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) under a series of continuous simulation scenarios with different intervals among rainfalls. The results showed that model outputs were sensitive to the variations of the buildup and washoff parameters of roof. The sensitivities of the percentage of impervious area and the maximum pollution buildup, buildup rate, and roof washoff exponent were found to increase with rainfall intervals. Furthermore, when the rainfall interval was longer than the soil drying time, the sensitivities of these parameters tended to converge to constants. Rainfall events with antecedent intervals longer than the soil drying time were therefore recommended to be used for parameter identification in the continuous simulation of SWMM to reduce parameter uncertainties.