基于STIRPAT模型的环境压力空间差异分析——以能源消费为例

定量分析区域人文驱动力对环境的影响,对认识我国区域环境压力及其影响因素具有一定的科学意义.利用STIRPAT模型,以人口数量、富裕度为自变量,以能源消费总量为因变量,应用岭回归函数拟合得到环境压力模型.以研究结果为依据.利用Mapinfo7.0 软件分别绘制人口数量和富裕度对环境压力影响的空间差异图.结果显示,不同省份间人口数量和富裕度对环境压力影响存在显著差异.尽管各省份人口数量对环境压力都产生线性正效应影响,但影响强度有明显差异,最大者是最小者的8.079倍.富裕度对环境压力影响,有正效应或者负效应;有线性作用或者弹性作用.30个考察对象中,北京、上海、四川、新疆4个省市的富裕度二次项系数为负,这说明,在数据观测范围内以上4个省市的结果支持富裕度与环境压力间存在倒"U"型环境库兹涅茨曲线的观点;但这4个省市的环境压力并没有出现下降,这是由于各种人文驱动力影响的净效应决定了环境压力变化趋势.人口数量的增长对环境压力的上升存在较强正效应.因此,控制人口数量的速度对改善环境压力将起到关键作用.

Analysis of spatial variations in environmental impact based on the STIRPAT model-A case study of energy consumption

Quantitative analysis of regional anthropogenic driving forces on environmental impact has scientific significance for understanding regional environmental impact and the factors that affect it.Utilizing the STIRPATmodel,taking population amount and affluence as independent variables and energy consumption as the dependent variable,a ridge regression function was fit to the environmental impact model.Based on the research results,the figures of population and affluence influence on environmental impact were drawn using Mapinfo 7.0.The results showed that population and affluence both had notable influence on the environmental impact in different provinces.The population had a positive and proportional effect,but the intensities varied greatly,with the largest one 8.079 times larger than the smallest.Affluence had positive or negative,linear or non-linear effects.Among the thirty provinces,the coefficients of the quadratic term for affluence were negative in Beijing,Shanghai,Sichuan,and Xinjiang,so these results support the view that the relation between affluence and environmental impact conforms to the environmental Kuznets curve in empirical study.However,in the above four regions,the environmental impact had not been decreasing,because environmental impact was determined by the net effect of all kinds of anthropogenic driving forces.The growth of population had a stronger positive effect on environmental impact,so controlling the growth of population has an important function in decreasing environmental impact.