2013—2017年珠江三角洲主要大气污染控制措施减排效果评估

自2013年《大气污染防治行动计划》发布以来，珠江三角洲（PRD）地区实施了严格的大气污染防控政策，在全国率先实现PM_2.5浓度连续3年达标，然而，已实施的控制措施对污染物的减排效果尚不清楚.因此，本研究通过广泛收集2013—2017年珠三角地区大气污染源活动水平数据与控制措施，建立2013—2017年实际控制与未控制情景的污染物趋势排放清单，对主要控制措施的减排效果进行了量化.结果表明，2013—2017年珠三角地区SO₂、NO_x、PM₁₀、PM_2.5和VOCs 5种污染物排放分别下降了55%、24%、55%、54%和10%.相比于未控制情景，实际控制情景下2017年5种污染物分别实现61%、40%、68%、70%和41%的减排.在各类管控措施中，工业提标对5种污染物减排分别贡献了39%、46%、66%、69%和25%；销号整治对VOCs减排贡献最大（32%），对其它污染物减排贡献约10%；清洁能源改造主要对SO₂和PM减排有所贡献，其中，煤改气、低硫煤、低硫油对SO₂减排有主要贡献（均为15%左右），低灰分煤对PM₁₀（12%）和PM_2.5（19%）减排有较大贡献；机动车提标、淘汰黄标车对NO_x（22%、17%）和VOCs（23%、12%）减排有较大贡献.本研究可为珠三角和其它地区针对不同大气污染物科学制定防控政策与措施提供基础数据和科学支撑.

Assessment of emission reduction effect of major air pollution control measures in the Pearl River Delta from 2013 to 2017

Since the Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan in 2013, the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region has implemented strict air pollution prevention and control policies, taking the lead in achieving PM_2.5 concentration standard for three consecutive years in China. However, the effection of the implemented control measures on pollutants emission reductions are still unclear. Based on the extensive collection of air pollution control measures in PRD from 2013 to 2017, this study established trend emission inventories for controlled and uncontrolled air pollution scenarios from 2013 to 2017, and further quantified the emission reduction effects of the main control measures. The results showed that SO₂, NO_x, PM₁₀, PM_2.5 and VOCs in PRD region decreased by 55%, 24%, 55%, 54% and 10% respectively from 2013 to 2017. Compared to the uncontrolled scenario, the controlled scenario achieved emission reductions of 61%, 40%, 68%, 70% and 41% for five pollutants in 2017. Among all kinds of control measures, the upgrade of emission standard for industrial sectors contributed 39%, 46%, 66%, 69% and 25% to the reduction of the five pollutants, respectively. Sales of high polluting enterprises made the largest contribution to VOCs emission reduction(32%) and about 10% for other four pollutants emission reductions. The transformation of clean energy mainly contributed to the emission reduction of SO₂ and PM, among which coal-to-gas, low sulfur coal and low sulfur oil totally contribute to 15% of SO₂ emission reduction, and low ash coal contributes to 12% of PM₁₀ reduction and 19% of PM_2.5 reduction. The upgrading of emission standards for motor vehicles and the elimination of yellow-label vehicles have a great contribution to NO_x (22%, 17%) and VOCs (23%, 12%) emission reductions. This study can provide basic data and scientific support for PRD and other regions to formulate prevention and control policies and measures for different atmospheric pollutants.