基于环境统计调查数据的中国省会城市煤炭消费变化历史趋势研究

煤炭是我国主要能源，分析煤炭消费变化趋势对于预测我国二氧化碳及大气污染物排放具有重要意义。基于全国环境统计调查数据，分析了2011—2018年主要城市煤炭消费的利用情况，利用热力聚类图对我国省会城市（含直辖市）聚类分析其工业源和生活源的煤炭消费趋势，并按东部、中部和西部城市进行煤炭消费的区域性对比。结论如下:通过聚类分析发现，位于同一簇的城市之间工业企业煤炭消耗总量的基数和变化趋势有一定的相似性；总体上，城市工业企业的煤炭消耗呈逐年递减趋势，东部城市煤炭消耗总量高于中部、西部城市煤炭消耗总量，东部城市煤炭消费量下降情况总体好于中部和西部城市；除北京等少数城市外，电力、热力生产和供应行业每年的煤炭消耗量基本变化不大；城市生活源煤炭消费量变化趋势总体呈逐年递减趋势，西部呈上升趋势，东部、中部城市呈下降趋势；东部城市中的城市总煤炭消费达峰情况优于中部、西部城市。

RESEARCH ON CHANGING TREND OF COAL CONSUMPTION IN PROVINCIAL CAPITAL CITY BASED ON THE DATA OF ENVIRONMENTAL STATISTICAL INVESTIGATION

Coal is the main energy source in China. It is very important to analyze the changing trend of coal consumption in order to predict the emission of carbon dioxide and air pollutants. Based on the National Environmental Statistics Survey data, this paper analyzed the utilization of coal consumption in major cities from 2011 to 2018, as well as the coal consumption trends of industrial sources and living sources by clustering analysis of provincial capitals in China using the thermodynamic clustering map, and according to the eastern cities, central cities and western cities for regional comparison of coal consumption. The following conclusions were drawn: through cluster analysis, it was found that there was a certain similarity in the base and changing trend of the total coal consumption of industrial enterprises among the cities in the same cluster. Overall, the coal consumption of urban industrial enterprises showed a decreasing trend year by year. The total coal consumption of eastern cities was higher than that of central and western cities, and the decline of coal consumption in the eastern cities was generally better than that in the central and western cities. Except for a few cities such as Beijing, the annual coal consumption in the power and heat production and supply industries did not changed much. The trend of coal consumption of urban living source was decreasing year by year generally, and it was increasing in the west, decreasing in the east and the middle. The coal consumption peaking in eastern cities was better than that in central and western cities.