城市碳排放达峰和低碳发展研究:以上海市为例

在2015年巴黎气候变化大会上，中国政府提出"2030年前后碳排放达到峰值并加快实现"等一系列新阶段目标。城市是能源资源消耗和碳排放的集聚区域，推动城市低碳发展成为各国面临的共同挑战。采用STIRPAT模型，探究上海市过去20年发展总体形势，分析碳排放影响因素，判断上海在2025年是否可以达峰。结果表明:无论基准情景还是超低碳情景，上海市在2025年之前达峰的目标均可以实现。在对上海市碳排放各影响因素中，城市化率对其影响最大，其次是人均GDP水平。

RESEARCH ON CARBON EMISSIONS PEAKING AND LOW-CARBON DEVELOPMENT OF CITIES: A CASE OF SHANGHAI

On the 2015 Paris Climate Change Conference, Chinese government put forward a series of new goals such as "peak carbon emissions around 2030 and accelerate their realization". Cities are main sources of energy consumption and carbon emissions, thus promoting low-carbon development of cities becomes a common challenge facing all countries. This study used the STIRPAT model to explore the development situation of Shanghai in the past 20 years, and analyzed the impact factors of its carbon emissions to identity whether Shanghai can peak carbon emissions in 2025. The results showed that shanghai could peak its carbon emissions by 2025 under either the baseline scenario or the ultra-low carbon scenario. It was also found that urbanization rate was the dominant impact factors for Shanghai’s carbon emissions, followed by the level of per capita GDP.