组合灰色预测模型应用于山东省碳排放预测

根据山东省2000—2012年工业、建筑业和交通运输业能源消费数据测算得到碳排放量,基于GM(1,1)模型、Verhulst模型和SCGM(1,1)c模型建立组合灰色预测模型,运用预测有效度方法确定组合预测模型的权重系数。选用2000—2009年三大碳排放行业的实际值作为原始数据,利用各预测模型预测2010—2012年碳排放量。结果表明:组合灰色预测模型比单一预测模型具有更高的预测精度。利用组合模型预测山东省2013—2017年各行业碳排放量,为相关部门制定节能减排政策提供理论及方法借鉴。

APPLICATION OF COMBINATION GREY MODEL IN CARBON EMISSIONS PREDICTION IN SHANDONG PROVINCE

According to the Shandong Province industrial，construction and transportation energy consumption data from 2000 to 2012，carbon emissions were calculated，and using GM ( 1，1) model，Verhulst model and SCGM ( 1，1) c model，the combination forecast model was set up，and using the effective method the weight coefficient of combination forecast model was determined． The actual values of three carbon emission industries from 2000 to 2009 were taken as original data to predict carbon emissions form 2010 to 2012． The results demonstrate that the forecast accuracy of combined model is better than that of GM( 1，1) model，Verhulst model and SCGM( 1，1) c model． Further the carbon emissions of all industries in Shandong Province from 2013 to 2017 were also predicted，which could provide theoretic references for relevant departments to formulate policy for energy conservation and emissions reduction．