大型体育场馆水-能-碳足迹关联模型与不确定性分析

为构建适用于体育场馆类微观建筑水系统的水-能-碳足迹关联模型,分析了各类体育场馆的特点,采用排放因子法对体育场馆开展包括生活水系统、空调水系统及体育水系统在内的模型搭建,解析了取水、给水、用水及排水的能源消耗与碳排放过程。采用数据质量评价与随机分析相结合的方法进行数值不确定性分析;采用情景分析法与敏感性分析法进行情景不确定性分析,识别并量化影响因素。以2022年北京冬奥会延庆赛区的国家雪车雪橇中心场馆为例的分析结果表明:水在全生命周期中制冰项与供暖项碳排放量最高,分别为161.2,114.3 t CO₂,在先进技术+清洁能源情景下可减少65.4%的碳排放量,变异系数为0.183~0.187。使用绿色电力、采用节水器具、中水回用、提高能源利用效率等措施可达到稳定的减排效果。

A WATER-ENERGY-CARBON FOOTPRINT NEXUS MODEL FOR LARGE SPORTS VENUES AND ITS UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS

A water-energy-carbon footprint nexus model was proposed to be used for calculating the energy consumption and carbon footprint of sports venues. Meanwhile, the uncertainty of the water system carbon footprint of sports venues was analyzed, and the definition of the characteristic emission factors was proposed. By analyzing the characteristics of most kinds of sports venues, the emission factor method was adopted in the model including domestic water system, air conditioning water system and sports water system of sports venues, in which the energy consumption and carbon emission of water intake, water supply, water use and drainage were analyzed. The numerical uncertainty analysis was carried out by combining data quality evaluation with random analysis. The scenario uncertainty analysis was performed by scenario analysis and sensitivity analysis for identifying and quantifying the influencing factors. A case study of the National Sliding Centre in Yanqing Area of 2022 Beijing Winter Olympic Games was conducted. The results showed that the carbon emissions of ice making and heating were the highest at 161.2 t CO₂ and 114.3 t CO₂ respectively in the operation stage. The carbon emissions were reduced by 65.4% under the scenario of advanced technology+clean energy, and the coefficient of variation was 0.183~0.187. The research indicated the measures of adopting green electricity, water-saving sanitary wares, recycling water and improving energy efficiency achieved stable emission reduction effect.