我国城镇化进程中碳排放影响因素的实证研究

利用1980—2013年间的城镇人口与碳排放数据,选取城镇化进程中影响碳排放的城镇化水平、城镇建设用地面积、第三产业增加值、人均可支配收入、城镇人均绿化面积等因素,实证分析了城镇化对我国碳排放的影响程度,并利用格兰杰夫因果关系与误差修正模型分析了二者的因果关系与时间效应。最后,从降低工业碳排放、加快低碳城镇化试点建设、推进低碳社区发展,促进新能源发展等方面提出了相关建议。

RESEARCH ON THE INFLUENCE FACTORS OF CARBON EMISSION IN CHINA'S URBANIZATION PROCESS

The paper used China's urban population and carbon emissions data for the years 1980-2013,selected the impact factors of carbon emissions during China's urbanization process such as the urbanization level,urban construction land area,the added value of the third industry,per capita disposable income,per capital green area in towns,then discussed the causality and time effect between urbanization and carbon emissions by using Granger causality test and error correction model (ECM).According to analysis,suggestions were given on reducing industrial carbon emissions,accelerating a low-carbon urbanization pilot building,proceeding low-carbon community development and promoting new energy development.