乌鲁木齐城市群城市间大气污染相互影响分析

利用乌鲁木齐城市群2010—2015年空气质量日报,引入时间序列的VAR模型对城市间的大气污染相互影响关系及贡献进行研究。结果表明:乌鲁木齐城市群5市存在影响效应,乌鲁木齐受外源影响为主,昌吉、阜康受内源影响为主,五家渠、石河子受内外源共同影响;乌鲁木齐城市群城市间大气污染相互影响存在明显的滞后效应,前3期的影响最大,第10期以后响应值趋于0。

ANALYSIS ON THE MUTUAL INFLUENCE OF AIR POLLUTION IN URUMQI URBAN AGGLOMERATION

This paper analyzed the relationship of mutual influence and contribution of air pollution between cities with the introduction of the time series VAR model.Air quality daily data in Urumqi urban agglomeration from 2010 to 2015 were used as a main data sources.The results showed that the five cities of Urumqi urban agglomeration had been influenced.Urumqi was mainly affected by external source of air pollution;Changji and Fukang were mainly affected by internal source of pollution;Wujiaqu and Shihezi were affected by both external and internal source of pollution.There was significant lagging effect in the mutual influence of air pollution between cities in the Urumqi urban agglomeration.In the first three periods,mutual influences had the greatest impact,and the influences value tend to 0 after the tenth period.