中国水泥行业二氧化碳减排技术及成本研究

为降低水泥行业碳减排成本，确定最优碳减排技术路径，研究基于经济-能源模型，核算中国水泥行业最新碳减排技术的边际减排成本，使用情景分析方法，研究了与未实施减排技术相比，2020年17项技术的碳减排潜力，并将其作为基准情景，和2025，2030，2035年3个未来情景的碳减排潜力作比较，从而得出不同情景下的边际减排成本曲线。结果表明:1）2020年我国水泥行业17项减排技术的平均减排成本为124元/tCO₂，2020年实现总减排量3043万t，总减排成本为10.3亿元；在保持技术水平和排放水平不变的情况下，2035年17项减排技术可实现总减排量21307万t，总减排成本为103.4亿元。2）在各项减排技术中，集成模块化窑衬节能技术与水泥熟料烧成系统优化技术，具有较高减排潜力和较低减排成本，适合广泛推广；CO₂捕集利用与封存（CCUS）技术虽具有较高减排成本，但是未来减排潜力较大，应给予重视。3）技术普及率与熟料产量是决定减排潜力的重要因素，因此未来水泥行业应注重节能减排政策技术推广与产业结构调整，可进一步实现减排目标。

MITIGATION TECHNOLOGIES AND MARGINAL ABATEMENT COST CURVES FOR CEMENT INDUSTRY IN CHINA

In order to reduce the carbon emission abatement cost of cement industry and determine the optimal carbon emission reduction technology path, based on the economic-energy model, we calculated the marginal abatement cost of the latest carbon emission reduction technology in China's cement industry in this paper. Using scenario analysis method to study the future emission reduction potential of 17 technologies implemented in 2020, compared with the non-implemented technologies, we took them as the benchmark scenario and compare them to carbon emission reduction potentials of the three future scenarios in 2025, 2030 and 2035 to obtain the different marginal emission reduction cost curves. The results showed that:1) the average abatement cost of 17 technologies in China's cement industry was 124 yuan/tCO₂ in 2020. The total emission reduction was 30.4 million tons in 2020, and the total abatement cost was 1.03 billion yuan; for maintaining the same level of technology and emission, in 2035, the total emission reduction of 17 technologies will be 213.07 million tons, and the total abatement cost will be 10.34 billion yuan. 2) among the emission abatement technologies, the energy saving technology of integrated modular kiln lining and optimization technology of cement clinker firing system had higher emission reduction potential and lower abatement cost. Although carbon capture, use and storage technology had higher abatement cost, it had greater potential for future emission reductions. 3) technology penetration rate and clinker outputs were important factors in determining emission reduction potential. Therefore, in the future, the cement industry should pay attention to energy conservation and emission reduction policies, technology promotion and industrial structure adjustment, so as to further achieve the emission reduction target.