中国钢铁行业CO2减排技术及成本研究

钢铁行业是我国主要的能源消费及CO₂排放行业，推动钢铁行业低碳绿色发展已成为实现我国碳达峰、碳中和的重要环节。为此，研究围绕能源结构调整、工艺结构优化、节能减排技术推广和CCUS技术应用4方面，通过设置基础情景、稳定发展情景和强化减排情景3类情景，利用边际减排成本曲线对我国钢铁行业34项减排技术的减排成本和减排潜力进行分析。结果表明:在稳定发展情景下，我国钢铁行业平均减排成本为433元/tCO₂，所有技术的总减排成本为2100亿元，总减排潜力为4.9亿t。在各项减排技术中，废铁-电弧炉炼钢具有较高的减排经济效益，其以较低的单位减排成本贡献了钢铁行业近50%的碳减排量。未来，我国应加快推进长流程炼钢向短流程炼钢的发展，推动钢铁行业生产工艺的结构性调整。

MITIGATION TECHNOLOGIES AND MARGINAL ABATEMENT COST FOR IRON AND STEEL INDUSTRY IN CHINA

Promoting the low-carbon development of the iron and steel industry has become an important part of achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality in China, as it's a major energy consumption and CO₂ emitting industry. In this paper, we analyzed the key abatement technologies and the abatement costs for iron and steel industry under three types of scenarios and four decarbonization aspects:energy structure adjustment, process structure optimization, energy saving and emission reduction technology promotion, and CCUS technology application, to reveal the emission reduction priority of each technology. The results indicated that, under the steady development scenario, the average abatement cost for iron and steel industry was RMB 433/t CO₂. The total abatement cost of all the technologies was RMB 210 billion, with a total carbon abatement volume of 490 million tons. Among the various abatement technologies, scrap-EAF had the best economic efficiency, contributing nearly half of the total abatement in the iron and steel industry, indicating that the scarp-EAF becomes an essential measure for China's iron and steel industry to achieve the target of carbon peak and carbon neutrality.