中国建筑部门二氧化碳减排技术及成本研究

由于中国正处于高速城市建设阶段，建筑部门能耗超出国家全社会能耗的1/5。随着"双碳"目标的提出，将鼓励更多的节能技术和促进建筑部门碳减排政策。基于此，通过评估建筑部门在碳达峰年前后的建筑存量，筛选关键减排技术，对比分析了不同减排技术的应用对建筑部门的经济效益和减排潜力的影响情况。结果显示:2025，2030，2035年，中国建筑存量将分别达到763亿，817亿，857亿m2。筛选出的26项建筑部门关键减排技术应用将在2025，2030，2035年带来4.62亿，4.74亿和4.68亿t CO₂减排潜力，年度平均碳减排成本为1604元/t，年度总减排成本为2960.2亿，3353.4亿，2685.6亿元。4个建筑子部门中，在建筑碳排放达峰前（2020年和2025年）、后（2030年和2035年）CO₂减排潜力最大的子部门由北方城镇供暖转变为农村居住建筑。各项减排技术在边际减排成本（MAC）曲线上的分布较为分散，即各子部门可通过比选各项技术特征推广有效的减排技术。因此，绘制预测年建筑部门减排技术的MAC曲线，能够为建筑行业碳达峰期间筛选经济高效的减排技术提供思路。

CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSION REDUCTION TECHNOLOGY SCREENING AND COST STUDY IN BUILDING SECTOR OF CHINA

As the high-speed urban construction in China, the energy consumption in building sector has consumed more than 20% of the national energy consumption. With the proposal of China's Double Carbon target, more energy-saving technologies and carbon emission reduction policies in building sector will be encouraged. Under this background, this study evaluated the building stock around the year of carbon peak and selected key emission reduction technologies. Moreover, we also analyzed the effect of the application of these technologies in predicted year on the economic benefits and emission reduction potential of building sector. The results showed that in 2025, 2030 and 2035, China's building stock would be 76.3, 81.7 and 85.7 billion m2, respectively. The 26 selected key emission reduction technologies in building sector would bring 462, 474, 468 million tons of CO₂ emission reduction in 2025, 2030 and 2035, respectively. Meanwhile, the average abatement costs of the given technologies would be 1604 yuan/t CO₂, and annual total abatement costs would become 296.02, 335.34, 268.56 billion yuan, respectively. Among the four construction sub-sectors, urban heating in the north China would bring the biggest CO₂ emission reduction before the year of carbon peak (2020 and 2025), but after the peak of carbon emission in building sector (2030 and 2035), rural residential buildings would become the sub-sector with the largest CO₂ emission reduction. The distribution of the selected technologies on the marginal abatement cost (MAC) curve was relatively scattered, that was, effective emission reduction technology could be found and promoted by comparing technical characteristics. Therefore, drawing the MAC curve of emission reduction technology in building sector in predicted years can provide efficient ideas for selecting cost-effective emission reduction technologies during the peak period of carbon emission in building sector.