基于Arrhenius模型和Peck模型的分段非线性加速模型

目的 解决Arrhenius模型无法估计湿度应力敏感产品和Peck模型试验时间较长的问题。方法 考虑温度应力和湿度应力对产品贮存寿命的综合影响，在产品激活能不变的假设下，将Arrhenius模型对产品激活能的估计和Peck模型对湿度应力参数的估计相结合，建立Arrhenius&Peck分段非线性加速寿命估计模型。基于此模型，在双应力恒加试验条件下，得到产品的寿命估计方程。结果 以弹上电子产品的恒定应力加速贮存试验为例，进行仿真分析，得到产品寿命的估计，并对比产品实际寿命。Arrhenius&Peck模型的寿命误差和失效率误差均控制在5%以内，准确度高于Arrhenius模型和Peck模型。结论 构建的Arrhenius&Peck分段非线性加速寿命模型可以充分利用温度和湿度条件下的试验数据，对温湿敏感产品的寿命估计有较好的应用效果，为导弹产品的寿命估计提供一种可选方法。

Segmented Nonlinear Acceleration Model Based on Arrhenius and Peck Models

The work aims to solve the problem that the Arrhenius model cannot estimate the humidity stress sensitive products and the Peck model has a long test time. Considering the combined effect of temperature stress and humidity stress on the storage life of the product, under the assumption of constant activation energy of the product, the estimation of the activation energy of the product by Arrhenius model and the estimation of the humidity stress parameters by Peck model were combined to establish a Arrhenius&Peck segmented nonlinear accelerated life estimation model. Based on this model, the life estimation equations of the products were obtained under the double-stress constant-addition test conditions. Taking the constant stress accelerated storage test of electronic products on the bomb as an example for simulation and analysis, the estimation of the product life was obtained and compared with the actual life of the product, and the life error and failure rate error of the Arrhenius&Peck model were controlled within 5%, which was more accurate than the Arrhenius model and the Peck model. The constructed Arrhenius&Peck segmented nonlinear accelerated life model can make full use of the test data under the temperature and humidity conditions, and has a better application effect on the life estimation of temperature and humidity sensitive products, which provides an optional method for the life estimation of temperature and humidity sensitive products of missiles.