火工品温湿度加速老化模型和算法研究

目的 研究对火工品适用的温湿度加速模型,以及加速系数计算程序,获取准确的温湿度加速系数外推公式.方法 通过分析国内外使用的各种双因素加速模型的适用性,确定火工品适用的温湿度加速模型,采用免费自由的开源统计分析软件——R软件,对通过加速试验获取的某点火头2种温湿度加速条件下的试验数据,进行单组数据拟合和多组数据拟合两种温湿度加速老化算法的开发,并且对2种算法、3种寿命分布下寿命外推的准确性进行对比分析.结果 确定了Peck模型适合用于火工品的温湿度加速模型,获取了某电点火头对应的温湿度加速系数和湿度项反应速率常数.结论 基于多组数据拟合的温湿度加速老化算法,比基于单组数据拟合的温湿度加速老化算法对试验数据的兼容性好.3种寿命分布中,Weibull分布的加速系数计算结果最保守.

Research on Accelerated Aging Model and Algorithm of Temperature and Humidity of Initiators & Pyrotechnics

In order to obtain the accurate extrapolation formula of temperature and humidity acceleration coefficient, the temperature and humidity acceleration model suitable for Initiators & Pyrotechnics and the calculation program of acceleration coefficient are studied. Through the analysis of the applicability of various two-factor acceleration models used at home and abroad, the temperature and humidity acceleration models applicable to the pyrotechnics are determined. The free and open-source statistical analysis software-R software is used to develop two temperature and humidity accelerated aging algorithms by a single set of data fitting and multiple sets of data fitting to test data obtained from an ignition head under two conditions of temperature and humidity acceleration by accelerated testing, and the accuracy of life extrapolation under three life distributions of the two algorithms is compared and analyzed. The Peck model is determined to be the temperature and humidity acceleration model applicable to Initiators & Pyrotechnics, and the temperature and humidity acceleration coefficients and the humidity term reaction rate constants corresponding to certain electric match is obtained. The temperature and humidity accelerated aging algorithm fitted to multiple sets of data is more compatible with the test data than the temperature and humidity accelerated aging algorithm based on a single set of data fitting; and among the three life distributions, the calculation results of the acceleration coefficient of the Weibull distribution are more conservative, and the life extrapolation results are more reliable.