复杂火工系统可靠性预计方法及软件研究

目的 解决在进行复杂系统的可靠性建模以及预计时，计算效率低、容易出错的问题。方法 开展基于GO(Goal Oriented)法的复杂火工系统可靠性预计方法研究。建立不同种类火工组件的可靠性模型和算法，结合火工系统的GO图模型，对系统的可靠性进行预计以及定量分析。依据建立的可靠性模型以及算法，开发一套火工系统可靠性建模以及预计的软件，运用该软件对典型座椅弹射火工系统的可靠性进行预计，并且将软件计算结果与蒙特卡洛仿真方法得到的结果进行比较。结果 软件计算结果与蒙特卡洛仿真方法所得结果的最大相对误差不超过0.004 8%。结论 基于GO法的复杂火工系统可靠性预计方法是合理可行的，而且运用GO法开发的软件可以提高可靠性预计的计算效率，同时也为后续的 GO 图分析计算提供了技术支持。

Method and Software of Reliability Prediction for Complex Pyrotechnic System

The work aims to solve the problems such as low computational efficiency and error-prone in reliability modeling and prediction of complex system. In this work, the method of reliability prediction for complex pyrotechnic system was analyzed based on the GO (Goal Oriented) method. The reliability model and algorithm of different kinds of pyrotechnics components were established. Combining with the GO diagram model of the system, the reliability of the system was predicted and quantitatively analyzed. Based on the reliability model and algorithm, the reliability prediction software of the pyrotechnic system was developed. The software was used to predict the reliability of a typical seat ejection pyrotechnic system, and the calculated results were compared with those obtained by the Monte-Carlo simulation method, and the maximum relative error was not more than 0.004 8%. It is concluded that the reliability prediction method based on the GO method is reasonable and feasible. Moreover, the reliability prediction software developed with the GO method can improve the computational efficiency and provide technical support for the subsequent GO diagram analysis and calculation.