基于灰色马尔科夫模型的2A12铝合金腐蚀预测方法研究

目的研究飞机结构件的腐蚀随时间的变化规律,为其寿命预测及可靠性分析提供参考。方法以2A12铝合金试件为对象,利用加速腐蚀试验设备,对其进行7个周期的加速腐蚀,以获得蚀坑深度的原始数据。在此基础上,将灰色GM(1,1)模型与马尔科夫链模型相结合,建立起能够预测蚀坑深度的灰色马尔科夫模型。结果将预测值与试验值进行对比,结果表明,灰色马尔科夫模型预测精度在0~4.5%之间,预测结果比较准确。结论该灰色马尔可夫模型能够较好地反映该型铝合金在腐蚀过程中蚀坑深度的变化趋势,建立起了一种新的腐蚀预测方法。

The Research on 2A12 Aluminum Corrosion Prediction Method Based on Gray Markov Model

Objective To study the changing rule of corrosion of aircraft structure parts with time, and to provide a reference for the life prediction and reliability analysis. Methods 2A12 aluminum alloy specimens was taken as the object, and the equipment of accelerated laboratory corrosion test was used to perform 7 cycles of accelerated corrosion, to obtain the original data of the depth of corrosion pits. On this basis, combining the gray GM(1,1) model and the Markov chain model, the gray Markov model was established, which could be used to forecast the depth of corrosion pits. Results Through comparison of the predicted results with the experimental results, it was found that the prediction accuracy of grey Markov model was between 0 ~ 4. 5% , and the predicted results were relatively accurate. Conclusion This grey Markov model could well reflect the development trend of the depth of aluminum alloy corrosion pits during the corrosion, and a new method for corrosion prediction was established