Cost estimates of the Kigali Amendment to phase-down hydrofluorocarbons |
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| Institution: | 1. Department of Environmental Studies, New York University, 285 Mercer Street, 9th Floor, New York, NY, 10003, USA;2. Sabin Center for Climate Change Law, Columbia Law School, Columbia University, Jerome Greene Hall, 435 West 116th Street, New York, NY, 10027, USA;3. Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, Clark Hall, 291 McCormick Road, P.O. Box 400123, Charlottesville, VA, 22904, USA;4. The Fletcher School/Global Development and Environment Institute, 44 Teele Avenue, Medford, MA 02155, USA;5. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria;1. Agribusiness and Economics Research Unit, Lincoln University, New Zealand;2. Landcare Research – Manaaki Whenua, Lincoln, New Zealand;1. Dipartimento di Ingegneria Industriale, Università di Salerno, via Ponte Don Melillo, 84084 Fisciano, Salerno, Italy;2. DETEC, Università degli Studi di Napoli Federico II, P.le Tecchio 80, 80125 Napoli, Italy;1. ISTENER Research Group, Department of Mechanical Engineering and Construction, Campus de Riu Sec s/n, University Jaume I, E12071 Castellón, Spain;2. Institute for Industrial, Radiophysical and Environmental Safety, Camino de Vera s/n, Polytechnic University of Valencia, E46022 Valencia, Spain;1. Department of Geography, McGill University, 805 Sherbrooke St. West., Burnside Hall 614, Montreal, Quebec H3A 0B9, Canada;2. Department of Geography, Makerere University, P.O. Box 7062, Kampala, Uganda;3. Université du Québec à Montréal, Institut des Sciences De L''environnement, Case Postale 8888, Succursale Centre-ville, Montréal, Québec H3C 3P8, Canada |
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| Abstract: | Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) are synthetically produced compounds primarily used for cooling purposes and with strong global warming properties. In this paper, we analyze the global abatement costs for achieving the substantial reductions in HFC consumption agreed in the Kigali Amendment (KA) of the Montreal Protocol from October 2016. We estimate that compliance with the KA is expected to remove 39 Pg CO2eq or 61% of global baseline HFC emissions over the entire period 2018–2050. The marginal cost of meeting the KA targets is expected to remain below 60 €/t CO2eq throughout the period in all world regions except for developed regions where legislation to control HFC emissions has already been in place since a few years. For the latter regions, the required HFC consumption reduction is expected to come at a marginal cost increasing steadily to between 90 and 118 €/t CO2eq in 2050. Depending on the expected rate of technological development and the extent to which envisaged electricity savings can be realized, compliance with KA is estimated attainable at a global cost ranging from a net cost-saving of 240 billion € to a net cost of 350 billion € over the entire period 2018 to 2050 and with future global electricity-savings estimated at between 0.2% and 0.7% of expected future electricity consumption. |
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| Keywords: | Hydrofluorocarbons Greenhouse gases Abatement cost Montreal protocol Kigali amendment Energy efficiency co-benefits |
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