碳减排方案优化及其在产业升级中的效应研究

构建了包含能源消耗与碳排放的多行业动态一般均衡模型,研究发现,通过各行业的边际减排成本相等这一总体减排任务的合理分解方式,能够实现要素的优化配置并激发“创新补偿效应”,具有相对较高的增长效应与福利效应.分行业单独制定碳减排约束时的边际减排成本较高,且无法产生行业间减排的联动效应,因而总体减排方案是有效的.碳强度减排方案优化后,其在产业结构升级中的效应也十分明显.测算结果表明,碳减排对工业结构“重型化”的控制效应明显,还将农业减排的压力转化为“富碳农业”发展的动力,导致经济中农业占比上升.服务业企业通过增大劳动和资本等要素的投入替代产生高碳排放的能源要素,减缓碳减排政策对其生产行为的负向影响并实现了稳定增长.随着减排强度的加大,中国产业结构合理化和高度化程度得到了显著提升.

Optimized carbon emission reduction scheme and its effects on the industrial upgrading

A multi-industry dynamic general equilibrium model was specified with energy consumption and carbon emission included in this paper. The conclusions were that the optimal allocation of factors could be realized and the "innovation compensation effects" as well as relatively higher growth effects and welfare effects would be motivated by the reasonable decomposition of overall emission reduction, i.e. the marginal cost of emission reduction in each industry was equal. Subjected to the independent industrial emission reduction set by each industry, the industries' marginal abatement costs were higher and no linkage effects between industries generated. On the contrary, the overall emission reduction scheme was effective. Moreover, the optimized carbon intensity reduction scheme had positive effects on industrial structure upgrading. It indicated that the control effects of the carbon emission reduction on "heavy industrialization" were significant. Furthermore, the results also demonstrated that the pressure of agricultural emission reduction could be transformed into the driving force for "carbon-rich agriculture" developing, which would lead to an increased agricultural proportion in the economy. Last but not least, it was labor and capital inputs increased by service enterprises instead of energy factors accompanied by high carbon emissions generating. Thus the negative impact of carbon emission reduction policy on their behavior of production would be mitigated and stable growth would be achieved. Above all, as the intensity of emission reduction was on the increase, the rationalization degree and supererogation degree of industrial structure had been greatly improved.