基于高精度清单的京津冀机动车控污政策研究

为研究京津冀机动车污染控制政策对CO、HC、NO_x、PM_2.5、PM₁₀等污染物的减排效果，建立了2014年高精度机动车排放清单，选取过去已经实施，未来规划实施及优化/劣化后的若干政策，设置4类共13种政策情景，与实际清单基准情景进行对比，识别各政策情景的排放变化，并对其中由政府给予补贴的政策进行成本收益核算.结果显示，淘汰低排放标准机动车带来的污染减排效果最好，在天津和河北对CO和HC的排放削减分别为53.19%，49.75%和51.28%，50.87%，达半数及以上；升级机动车发动机和燃油标准也能显著削减排放，在天津和河北对PM_2.5、PM₁₀的削减分别为17.01%，17.00%和21.95%，21.93%.政府补贴政策存在明显边际效应特征，排放标准高，重污染车少的北京单位成本的减排收益明显低于天津和河北，.河北和天津在考虑成本因素的基础上，应当逐步采纳北京的高标准减排政策；北京则可在一定条件下，将一部分低效的政府补贴通过合理方式转移支付给天津和河北，以提高政府投入的减排效率.

Vehicle pollution control policy study on the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,based on a high-precision emission inventory

In order to identify the emission reduction effects of vehicle pollution control policies for CO, HC, NO_x, PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, a high-precision vehicle emission inventory of 2014 was established, and some policies which have been implemented in the past, existing policies, policies intended to be implemented in the future, and optimized policies were selected to set up 13policy scenarios in four categories, which were used to be compared with the business as usual scenario of actual emission inventory. The cost-benefit analysis was made on the policies in which subsidies were provided by the government. The most efficient emission reduction policy was eliminating low emission standard vehicles, and the upgrades of vehicle and fuel standards could also reduce emissions significantly. Government subsidy policies had obvious marginal effects. The marginal emission reduction benefit in Beijing was significantly lower than Hebei and Tianjin, while Beijing had the highest emission standard and the least heavy-pollution vehicles among the three regions. Hebei and Tianjin should adopt more stringent pollution control policies gradually as did in Beijing, and Beijing could transfer part of the inefficient government subsidies to Tianjin and Hebei so as to increase the emission reduction efficiency of government subsidy.