中国大气污染物重点行业减排分析——基于假设抽取法和价格传导影响系数

以中国各行业SO₂、NO_x和烟粉尘的排放数据为基础，利用假设抽取法和投入产出价格模型，计算了各行业的需求排放、产出排放和净转移量，模拟了不同情景下重点行业减排后对整体行业需求排放的影响，并计算了重点减排行业污染成本内部化造成的价格传导影响系数.结果显示，2014年电力热力燃气供应业、非金属矿制品业和金属矿采选及冶炼延压业这3个重点行业大气污染物净转出量最大；在这3个行业同时减排15%的情景下，SO₂、NO_x和烟粉尘这3种污染物的减排量可以分别达到中国“十三五”节能减排目标的62.12%、72.65%和67.11%；电力热力燃气供应业作为大气污染物减排影响最大的行业，如果将其污染成本内部化，其生产产品的价格会对其余行业造成不同程度的影响，其中，对水生产和供应业、金属制品业产品、金属矿采选及冶炼延压业和非金属矿制品业的价格影响较大，总价格传导影响系数分别为0.272、0.151、0.148和0.131.因此，建立合理的大气污染物减排成本分摊机制一方面可以补贴基础转出行业的治理成本，另一方面可以通过价格机制激励其他行业提高技术水平，减少对电力等基础工业产品的需求.

Analysis on industry emission reduction of air pollutants based on HEM and price transmission influence coefficient

Based on the emission data of SO₂, NO_x, soot and dust of industries in China, the hypothetical extraction method (HEM) and the input-output price model were used to calculate the demand emission, output emission and net transferred emissions (NTE). The impacts of the key industries on the industries' demand emission reduction were simulated under different scenarios, and the price coefficients from pollution reduction costs of the key industries were calculated. The results showed that the largest amount of air pollutants were transferred from the power and gas (POW), Nonmetal Products (NONP) and Metals Mining, Smelting and Pressing (METM) in 2014; under the scenarios of 15% reduction rates from the three key industries, the reductions of SO₂, NO_x, soot and dust emissions accounted for 62.12%, 72.65% and 67.11% of emission reduction targets of the 13th Five-Year Plan respectively. The power and gas (POW) had the greatest impact on emission reduction. If air pollution costs were internalized, the price of other industry would be influenced by POW price in varying degrees. To be specific, the Water Production (WAT), Metal Products (METP), Metals Mining, Smelting and Pressing (METM) and Nonmetal Products (NONP) were most strongly influenced and the total price transmission coefficient was 0.272, 0.151, 0.148 and 0.131 respectively. The government should establish a reasonable mechanism to allocate the costs of emission reduction. This mechanism can not only subsidize the reduction costs of major industries but also stimulate the other industries to improve technology in saving demand from those basic industrial products such as electricity.