集对分析在区域大气环境风险评价中的应用研究

应用集对分析法对事故状态下有毒有害气体环境风险分布建立数学模型,通过南京化工园区的实例分析,把评价区域大气环境风险划分为5个等级,并对差异不确定系数i取值进行讨论,以反映不同状态下的大气环境风险分布水平.研究结果显示,i_1=0.5,i_2=0.5取值方法简便,且此时的区域大气环境风险状态相对符合实际,可为优化土地利用规划和完善环境风险防控措施提供依据.

Set pair analysis for regional atmospheric environmental risk assessment

Because multiple sources release multiple stressors and these stressors affect multiple habitats and endpoints, the spatial information of interaction is limited and uncertain. Set pair analysis (SPA) can effectively describe and deal with the environmental risk systems with limited and uncertain spatial information and model the distribution of environmental risk of poisonous gases after accidents. In this paper, the regional atmospheric environmental risk of Nanjing Chemical Industry Park was analysed by SPA model. In order to describe the distribution of atmospheric environmental risks in different conditions, this paper classified the risks into 5 levels and discussed the value of variation uncertainty coefficient. Under i₁=0.5, i₂=-0.5, the analysis is not complex and the level of regional atmospheric environment risks is close to the actual situation. The analysis result under these variation uncertainty coefficient can guide the optimization of land use planning and improvement of environmental risk control measures.