船舶排放及不确定性对中国空气质量的影响

船舶排放是我国沿海地区重要的人为排放源，但现有的船舶排放评估研究大多只关注区域尺度的影响分析，而且忽视了排放清单的不确定性，这在一定程度上削弱了评估结果的可靠性.为此，本文利用WRF-SMOKE-CAMQ空气质量模型，定量评估了船舶排放及其不确定性对我国七大沿海港口城市夏季空气质量的影响，结果表明：船舶排放对我国主要沿海港口城市的SO₂、NO_x和PM_2.5浓度贡献范围分别为16.5%~62.5%、21.9%~72.9%和5.9%~26.0%，尤其对宁波、青岛和深圳等港口城市空气质量的影响显著，主要是由于港口较高的船舶排放以及气象传输两方面原因造成的；如果考虑船舶排放清单的总量不确定性，船舶排放对沿海港口城市夏季SO₂、NO_x和PM_2.5的影响分别呈现1.0~3.1，2.1~5.5，0.3~0.9μg/m³的波动；考虑船舶排放清单的时空分配不确定性，船舶排放对沿海港口城市夏季SO₂、NO_x和PM_2.5的影响分别呈现1.9~15.7，5.1~29.3，0.6~2.5μg/m³的波动.可见，船舶排放清单的不确定性对沿海城市船舶排放贡献影响量化有明显的影响.所以在评估船舶排放对港口城市空气质量的影响时，要考虑船舶排放清单的不确定性，尤其是时空分配的不确定性.而合理的时空分配能够提高船舶排放清单的质量和对沿海空气质量模拟的准确性.

Influence of ship emissions and its uncertainty on air quality in China

Ship emissions were an important anthropogenic emission source in China's coastal areas. Most ship emissions assessment studies only focused on regional-scale impact analysis, but ignored the uncertainty of the emission inventories, which weakened the reliability of the assessment results to a certain extent. In this study, an air quality simulation platform based on WRF-SMOKE-CAMQ was built to quantitatively identify the impact of ship emissions on the air quality of seven coastal port cities in summer. The result showed that the contribution range of ship emission to the concentration of SO₂, NO_x and PM_2.5 was 16.5%~62.5%, 21.9%~72.9% and 5.9%~26.0% respectively in the main coastal port cities of China, especially in Ningbo, Qingdao and Shenzhen, which mainly due to the ship emissions intensity and atmospheric transmission. The contribution concentration range of the total uncertainty of ship emission inventory to SO₂, NO_x and PM_2.5 was 1.0~3.1, 2.1~5.5 and 0.3~0.9μg/m³ respectively in coastal cities in summer. The contribution concentration range of the uncertainty of different spatial-temporal allocation schemes to SO₂, NO_x and PM_2.5 was 1.9~15.7, 5.1~29.3 and 0.6~2.5μg/m³ respectively. It could be seen that the uncertainty of the ship emissions inventory had a significant impact on the quantification of the contribution of ship emissions to air quality of coastal cities. Therefore, the impact of ship emissions on the air quality of port cities evaluated, the uncertainty of ship emissions inventories, especially the uncertainty of spatial-temporal allocation, must be considered. Reasonable spatial-temporal allocation can improve the quality of ship emission inventory and the accuracy of coastal air quality simulation.