长江经济带农业废水面源污染与农业经济增长的脱钩关系

推进农业废水面源污染与农业经济增长的脱钩，是实现长江经济带农业经济高质量发展的迫切要求，因此，本文测算分析了2011~2016年长江经济带农业废水中氨氮、化学需氧量、总磷、总氮排放量与农业经济增长的脱钩关系及其演化趋势，结果表明：长江经济带农业废水面源污染总脱钩指数的变动幅度较小且小于0，但2015~2016年各污染源脱钩程度有所恶化；分省统计结果方面，四川农业废水中氨氮和化学需氧量排放脱钩为扩张性负脱钩，贵州、江苏、江西、上海、云南以及重庆化学需氧量排放为绝对脱钩，污染物排放绝对脱钩的省市主要位于长江经济带中游；农业废水面源污染的氨氮、化学需氧量排放的异质性空间边界溢出效应较明显，而总磷、总氮排放同质性溢出效应较明显；农业废水面源污染排放物的Moran’s I随距离升高，但随着空间边界地理距离的拉大，长江经济带农业废水面源污染的空间溢出效应脉冲式递减；氨氮、化学需氧量、总氮和总磷的排放对农业经济增长的长期影响呈U型趋势，影响效应贡献最大的为化学需氧量，其次为氨氮，总磷和总氮的影响较小，而总磷的影响持续为正.

Decoupling relationship between agricultural wastewater non-point source pollution and agricultural economic growth in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

It is an urgent requirement for achieving high-quality agricultural economic development to promote the decoupling of agricultural wastewater non-point source pollution from agricultural economic growth in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. The decoupling relationship and its evolution trend were analyzed between ammonia emissions, chemical oxygen demand, total phosphorus, and total nitrogen emissions from agricultural wastewater in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2011 to 2016. The results showed that: the total decoupling index of non-point source pollution was small and less than 0 in Yangtze River Economic Belt, but the decoupling degree of each pollution source has been deteriorated from 2015 to 2016. In terms of statistical results by province, the decoupling of ammonia emissions and chemical oxygen demand were expansion negative decoupling in agricultural wastewater in Sichuan. The chemical oxygen demand emissions were absolute decoupling in Guizhou, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Shanghai, Yunnan, and Chongqing. The provinces and cities were mainly located in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River Economic Belt with absolute decoupling of pollutant emissions. There were obvious about heterogeneous spatial boundary spillover effects of Chemical Oxygen Demand, homogeneous spillover effects of total phosphorus and total nitrogen. Moran's I of non-point source pollution emissions from agricultural wastewater increases with distance, but as the geographic distance of the spatial boundary increases, the spatial spillover effect of agricultural wastewater non-point source pollution in the Yangtze River Economic Belt pulses decreases. The long-term impact of ammonia emissions, chemical oxygen demand, total phosphorus and total nitrogen were U-shaped trend on agricultural economic growth. Effects greatest contribution was the chemical oxygen demand, followed by ammonia emissions, total phosphorus and total nitrogen, and the continued positive impact of total phosphorus.