渤海鳀鱼产卵场关键影响因素识别及变迁预测

为识别影响渤海鳀鱼产卵场分布的关键因素并预测产卵场的未来变迁，采用地理加权回归（GWR）方法，建立了渤海鳀鱼产卵场分布的GWR回归模型，分析了鳀鱼鱼卵分布与环境因子的关系，进而结合海表温度、盐度变化趋势，预测了未来渤海鳀鱼产卵场空间分布的变迁.结果表明，表层海水的温度、硅酸盐浓度、盐度和海水深度是对鳀鱼产卵场分布贡献较大的因素，其回归系数平均值依次为1.296、-1.133、-0.374和0.521，在未来海表温度、盐度变化情景下，一方面，渤海鳀鱼产卵场总面积将呈现缩小的趋势，最大可收缩为现有面积的47%，特别是渤海湾东北部鳀鱼产卵场明显收缩；另一方面，鳀鱼产卵场的密集区会发生迁移，如在辽东湾将出现新的产卵场密集区.GWR方法可以识别变量的空间非平稳性，应用其预测鳀鱼产卵场的未来变迁，可为渤海生态综合管理提供科学依据.

Key impact factor identification and future distribution prediction of the anchovy spawning ground in the Bohai Sea

To identify the key impact factors and predict the future distribution of the spawning ground in the Bohai Sea, the geographically weighted regression (GWR) method was used to analyze the relationship between the anchovy eggs' distribution and the environmental factors. Based on the GWR model of anchovy spawning ground distribution established in this study, the future anchovy spawning ground in the Bohai Sea were predicted by considering the sea surface temperature and salinity variation trend. The results showed that the sea surface temperature, silicate concentration, salinity and water depth average regression coefficients are 1.296、-1.133、-0.374 and 0.521, which are the key factors influencing the anchovy spawning ground distribution. Under future scenario of the sea surface temperature and salinity, the area of the anchovy spawning ground will shrink in the future, the maximum percentage of shrinking area is to 47 now, especially in the northeast of the Bohai Bay. The distribution of the spawning ground will also change with the appearing of the new aggregation of the spawning ground in the Liaodong Bay. The GWR method can be used to identify the spatial non-stationarity of the variables. The results from the GWR model of the anchovy spawning ground distribution could provide scientific bases for the comprehensive ecological management of the Bohai Sea.