基于LUCC的艾比湖区域生态风险评价及预测研究

以新疆内陆艾比湖流域典型区域为研究区，基于RS和GIS技术分析1998、2013年土地利用变化，尝试用CA-Markov模型预测2028年土地利用/覆盖变化.借助Fragstats3.4软件，基于土地利用/覆盖变化构建景观生态风险评价模型，分析1998~2028年景观生态风险的时空分异特征.结果表明：（1）1998~2013年，研究区土地类型面积变化明显.耕地面积增加量最大，增加的面积为152139hm²，而未利用地面积减少量最大，减少的面积为67605hm².2013~2028年，耕地和裸露的河床及盐渍地的面积增加明显，增加的面积分别为30730hm²，12427hm²，而未利用地和水体的面积分别从954376hm²和44889hm²，减至921079hm²和37157hm².（2）1998~2028年，研究区生态风险等级空间分布差异明显.高生态风险区面积变化较为显著，其面积分别约占总面积的36.6%，7.3%，23.7%.1998~2028年，全局Moran's Ⅰ值分别为0.436962，0.442202，0.506622，表现为一定程度的正相关.（3）1998~2028年，耕地分布在低，较低生态风险的比重上升，所占百分比分别为58.46%，78.58%，79.9%.林、草地类型的各生态风险等级的所占的比重的波动较大.

Ecological risk assessment and prediction of Ebinur Lake region based on Land use/Land cover change

This paper presented a study of land use and land cover change from 1998 to 2013, and likelihood of change through 2028 using remote sensing, geographic information system, and CA-Markov model in inland area of Ebinur lake basin in Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region. Fragstats 3.4 to construct landscape ecological risk assessment model was used. Spatial distribution of landscape ecological risks due to land use changes in the study area was analyzed. Results showed that: (1) the area of land types changed significantly in the study area from 1998 to 2013. For example, area of cultivated land was significantly increased to 152139 hm². However, area of unutilized land was correspondingly decreased, which was 67605 hm². From 2013 to 2028, cultivated land and the bared lakebed and salinized land increased significantly, approximately 30730 hm² and 12427 hm² respectively. However, area of unutilized land and water were decreased significantly from 954376 hm² and 44889 hm² to 921079 hm² and 37157hm², respectively. (2) From 1998 to 2028, spatial distributions of ecological risk have changed significantly in the study area. Areas of high ecological risk accounted for 36.6%, 7.3%, and 23.7% of the total area, respectively. From 1998 to 2028, the Moran's Ⅰ values were 0.436962, 0.442202, 0.506622, respectively. Moran's Ⅰ of the landscape pattern showed positive spatial autocorrelation, and had a rising trend. (3) From 1998 to 2028, the cultivated land distribution in the low and lower ecological risk area have increased. Its area accounted for the total area about 58.46%, 78.58%, and 79.9%, respectively. Forest, grassland ecological risk levels fluctuated in different levels.