| 基于多区域CGE模型的水污染间接经济损失评估——以长江三角洲流域为例 |
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| 引用本文： | 张伟,刘宇,姜玲,王金南,吴文俊,毕军.基于多区域CGE模型的水污染间接经济损失评估——以长江三角洲流域为例[J].中国环境科学,2016,36(9):2849-2856. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张伟 刘宇 姜玲 王金南 吴文俊 毕军 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 环境保护部环境规划院, 国家环境保护环境规划与政策模拟重点实验室, 北京 100012;
2. 南京大学环境学院, 污染控制与资源化研究国家重点实验室, 江苏 南京 210093;
3. 中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所, 北京 100190;
4. 中央财经大学政府管理学院, 北京 100081 |
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| 基金项目： | 水利部公益专项（201201073）；水专项（2012ZX07601002）；重点研发计划（2016YFA0602500）；国家自然科学基金（91325302） |
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| 摘 要： | 通过构建长江三角洲流域多区域CGE模型，模拟了2011年水污染对长江三角洲流域内部地区（上海、流域内浙江、流域内江苏）造成的间接经济损失.并且构建间接影响系数来反映流域内不同区域和行业受水污染的间接波及程度.研究结果表明：水污染对流域内区域的经济影响差异明显，从GDP绝对值减少量来看，上海GDP损失最大（161.3亿元），但从GDP百分比变化来看，流域内浙江损失更为显著（2.84%）；上海经济对长江三角洲流域水污染最为敏感，其间接经济损失将是其直接经济损失的3.5倍左右，而流域内江苏、流域内浙江仅为0.92倍和1.98倍.
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| 关 键 词： | 水污染 长江三角洲流域 多区域CGE模型 间接经济损失 |
| 收稿时间： | 2016-01-15 |
Evaluating the economic loss induced by water pollution based on multi-regional CGE Model: a case study of Yangtze River Delta Basin |
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| ZHANG Wei,LIU Yu,JIANG Ling,WANG Jin-nan,WU Wen-jun,BI Jun.Evaluating the economic loss induced by water pollution based on multi-regional CGE Model: a case study of Yangtze River Delta Basin[J].China Environmental Science,2016,36(9):2849-2856. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Wei LIU Yu JIANG Ling WANG Jin-nan WU Wen-jun BI Jun |
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| Institution: | 1. State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Environmental Planning and Policy Simulation, Chinese Academy for Environmental Planning, Beijing 100012, China;
2. State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control & Resource Reuse, School of Environment, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China;
3. Institute of Policy and Management, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China;
4. School of Government, Central University of Finance and Economics, Beijing 100081, China |
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| Abstract: | Taking Yangtze River Delta Basin as an example, indirect economic impacts of water pollution in 2011 on sub-regions (Shanghai, Zhejiang and Jiangsu) were simulated based on a basin scale multi-regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Moreover, an indirect effect coefficient (IDE) was been built to reflect the degree of indirect effect of water pollution on each sub-region and sector. The results indicated that economic impacts of water pollution had significant differences in three sub-regions of Yangtze River Delta Basin. The loss in GDP in Shanghai was the highest (16.13 billion Yuan), whereas the ratio of GDP loss in Zhejiang decreased most significantly (2.84%). In addition, the IDE of Shanghai, Zhejiang and Jiangsu were 3.47, 1.98 and 0.92 respectively, which means that the economy of Shanghai was most sensitive to water pollution occurred in the Yangtze River Delta Basin than other two regions. |
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| Keywords: | water pollution Yangtze River Delta Basin multi-regional CGE model indirect economic loss |
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