东辽河流域土地利用变化对非点源污染的影响研究

采用国际前沿的SWAT模型及CLUE-S模型,基于3S技术和统计分析方法,分析了吉林省东辽河流域土地利用2000~2005年的土地利用动态变化,并借助于Logistic回归结果探讨了2000~2005年土地利用变化的驱动力空间特征;运用2000年和2005年土地利用数据,结合CLUE-S模型,模拟不同预测方案下东辽河流域未来20a土地利用变化情况.在此基础上,应用SWAT模型分别对研究区2025年2种情景下非点源污染负荷进行模拟.结果表明:不同的土地利用条件下,情景2比情景1的多年平均径流减少了12.26mm、泥沙减少了8.4×103t、溶解态氮减少了8.29kg、有机氮减少了9.49kg、总氮减少了8.4kg、溶解态磷减少了8.61kg、有机磷减少了7.18kg、总磷减少了7.18kg,情景2比情景1更能有效的控制非点源污染.

Effect of future land use caused change on the non-point source pollution in Dongliao River weatershed

This study intends to investigate the effects of land use change on non-point pollution in Dongliao River watershed (Jilin Province), by coupling SWAT and CLUE-S models. SWAT was calibrated and validated with the historical observations of streamflow, sediment and nutrients from 2000to 2007, CLUE-S model was applied to explore the dynamic changes of land use and its subsequent impacts on non-point pollution after validated with map of 2000and 2005, and driving forces of land use have been discussed using Logistic regression analysis. Finally two land use scenarios were proposed based on historical trend (scenario 1) and government planning (scenario 2), and SWAT model was further applied to simulate the effects of land use changes on non-point pollution. The comparison of simulated result from SWAT model indicate that the streamflow, sediment and all the nutrients have shown a decrease in scenario 2, which suggests that scenario 2is more favorable to control non-point pollution. This work may provide a strategic basis for development and utilization of land resource, eco-environmental protection and regional sustainable development planning.