长江三角洲经济与工业污染重心演变及脱钩机理

以2000~2010年长江三角洲地区16市GDP、工业总产值、工业废水、工业废气和工业固体废物排放数据为基础,运用重心模型,通过测算重心坐标及其偏移距离,揭示长江三角洲地区经济重心和工业污染重心移动轨迹和演变规律,并从经济发展、产业结构、污染转移、环保投资等方面解析其演变机理.研究结果显示:经济重心与工业污染重心均位于几何重心的西北方向,但两者重心路径偏移呈现出一定的脱钩现象;经济重心呈现向西北方向偏移,其中GDP、工业重心偏移距离分别为9.45,7.58km;工业污染重心则向东南方向移动,其中工业废水、工业废气、工业固体废物重心偏移距离分别为18.11,28.98,3.84km;工业污染重心和经济重心迁移轨迹之间的脱钩现象受多种因素的驱动.其中,经济结构优化和发展不平衡加剧了经济重心向西北方向移动;环保投资推动了工业污染重心向东南方向移动;产业结构重型化及污染的地区间转移一定程度的加剧了工业污染重心向东南方向移动.

Evolution of economic and industrial pollution gravity centers and the decoupling mechanism in Yangtze River Delta

Based on the data of gross domestic product (GDP), total industrial output value, industrial wastewater, industrial waste gas and industrial solid waste, using the gravity model to calculate barycentric coordinates and offset distance, reveal the tracks and its changes of economic and industrial pollution gravity center of the Yangtze River Delta from 2000 to 2010. Furthermore, the paper explores the driving forces of the decoupling changes from four aspects, such as economic development, industrial structure, pollution transferring and environmental investment. The result shows that both economic gravity center and industrial pollution gravity center have being located in the northwest of region’s geometric center, but from the tracks, there is a certain decoupling phenomenon between them. The economic gravity center shifts to the northwest direction, the GDP gravity center and industrial gravity center have been respectively moving 9.45km and 7.58km to the northwest of the Yangtze River Delta. However, the industrial pollution gravity center shifts to the southeast direction, industrial wastewater, waste gas and solid waste gravity centers have been moving 18.11km, 28.92km and 3.84km respectively. Moreover, the economic gravity will still move toward northwest, in the contrary, the environmental gravity toward southeast in the near future．In detail, the decoupling phenomenon mainly attributes to the following aspects: Firstly, the economic structure optimization and unbalanced development aggravate the economic center of gravity move to the northwest. Secondly, environmental protection investment promotes the industrial pollution gravity center move to the southeast. Lastly, heavily industrial structure and pollution transferring between regions have sharpened the industrial pollution gravity center move to the southeastern of the Yangtze River Delta.