新安江流域横向生态补偿的经济效应

以新安江流域横向生态补偿试点作为准自然实验，采用2001~2017年中国安徽和浙江省内县域面板数据，利用双重差分方法（DID）定量研究了试点政策对流域上下游地区经济发展的影响及可能机制.结果显示：试点政策对上游地区的经济发展造成了一定程度的抑制影响，表现为相关地区的人均GDP或地区GDP出现了下降，而对流域下游地区经济发展并无显著作用，这一结论在进行多项稳健性检验后仍然成立；新安江试点政策对上游地区经济发展的负面影响呈现出了“先增强后减弱”的动态变化规律；此外，机制分析显示5个试点县内规模以上工业企业个数显著下降，表明“企业退出”是新安江试点政策对上游地区经济发展造成负面影响的重要原因.本研究可为后续制定和实施跨地区水资源保护的利益调配机制提供依据.

Study on the economic effects of Xin'an river basin horizontal ecological compensation

Taking the pilot policy of Xin'an river basin horizontal ecological compensation as a quasi-natural experiment, the difference-in-difference method was used to systematically examine the impact of pilot policy on the economic development of the upper and lower reaches of Xin'an river basin, based on the county-level panel data in Anhui and Zhejiang in 2001~2017. The results showed that the pilot policy had restrained the economic development of the upstream areas to a certain extent, and the per capita GDP and regional GDP of the relevant regions had declined. However, it had no significant effect on the economic development of the downstream areas. These conclusions were still valid after several robustness tests. Moreover, the negative impact of pilot policy on economic development of the upstream areas increased firstly and then decreased. Additionally, the driving mechanism analysis showed that the number of "industrial enterprises above designated size" decreased significantly in the five pilot counties, and revealed that "enterprise exit" was an important reason for the negative impact of Xin'an pilot policy on the economic development of the upstream regions. This study could provide reference for the formulation and implementation of the benefit allocation mechanism of trans-regional water resources protection.