基于能值定理的生态足迹模型修正研究

能值生态足迹模型是定量分析区域可持续发展的重要方法,然而其计算未考虑到经济发展和科技进步对生态承载力的影响,得出的结论往往具有一定的误差.因此,本文引入社会经济虚拟承载力账户对该模型进行修正,并以长沙市为例进行验证.结果表明:通过相关性对比分析,修正模型可突破传统模型具有生态偏向的弱可持续性评价局限,其计算结果更加科学合理.基于修正模型,2000~2011年长沙市的生态承载力变化不大,年均值为2.31hm2/人,而生态足迹呈现快速增长趋势,年均值为2.44hm2/人.这导致该地区出现逐年加剧的生态超载现象,年人均生态赤字为0.13hm2/人.通过多元统计分析方法得出,农牧业生产和重工业能耗的压力大是造成其生态赤字的主要原因.

The modified model of the emergetic ecological footprint: a case study of Changsha City

The emergetic ecological footprint model has been considered to be a valuable and significant method for quantitatively analyzing regional sustainable development. Nevertheless, the deviated results are affected by the ecological carrying capacity, which is not accounted with the factors of economy, science and technology progress. This research introduced the virtual accounts of socio-economic development to modify the model, and took Changsha City as an example for validity check. The results indicated that the modified model, which paid more attention to the elements of eco-economic system but only the ecological component, were more reliable, accurate and reasonable than the original model. Based on the modified emergetic ecological footprint model, the annual ecological carrying capacities of Changsha City were without significant change from 2000to 2011, with the average value of 2.31hm2per capita. While the ecological footprint, which average value was 2.44hm2per capita, exhibited a trend of rapid growth and caused a gradually increase of the ecological deficit with the average value of 0.13hm2per capita. The giant pressures from the agricultural activity and the heavy industry with high-level energy consumption were considered to be the principal factors, which prompted the growth of the local ecological deficit.