基于逐步聚类分析的水库浮游藻类生长预测

采用逐步聚类分析方法预测水库浮游藻类的生长情况,以于桥水库为例,选取了1999~2006年7个水质和气象因子的56组数据建立逐步聚类分析模型,其结果用于预测2007~2010年的叶绿素a含量.结果表明,实测值与预测值的变化趋势基本一致,相关系数R达到0.94,线性相关性较好.预测值的平均绝对误差为-0.0007,平均相对误差为21.66%.逐步聚类分析法可以快速准确的对水库的叶绿素a含量进行有效预测.对逐步聚类分析模型的敏感度分析表明,影响于桥水库藻类生长的主要因素是水体的pH值、溶解氧以及总磷,因此控制这3个因素是预防藻类爆发的重要途径.

Prediction of the alga growth in a reservoir based on the stepwise cluster analysis

The stepwise cluster analysis (SCA) was employed to predict the chlorophyll-a content of alga in Yuqiao Reservoir. A SCA model was firstly developed based on 56 data sets of 7factors related to water quality and meteorology from 1999 to 2006, which was used to predict the chlorophyll-a content from 2007 to 2010. The predicted values matched the measured values well with the average absolute error of -0.0007 and the average relative error of 21.66%, and the correlation coefficient is 0.94. It showed that SCA was effective to predict the chlorophyll-a content in Yuqiao Reservoir. The sensitivity analysis were also performed, the results showed that pH value, total phosphorus content and dissolved oxygen had more significant impacts on the alga growth in Yuqiao Reservoir. Therefore, it is an important way to prevent algal blooms by controlling the above 3 factors.