广东省能源消费碳排放分析及碳排放强度影响因素研究

根据省级能源统计和温室气体核算规则,计算分析了2005~2012年广东省能源消费碳排放和碳排放强度变化,并应用对数平均迪氏指数法对计算期的碳排放强度变化进行因素分解,定量分析了各产业(部门)能耗强度、产业结构、能源消费结构和能源碳排放系数对广东省碳排放强度变动的影响.结果表明:2005~2012年,广东省能源消费CO2排放年均增长6.28%,单位GDP碳排放累计下降27%,各产业(部门)能耗强度下降是推动碳排放强度下降的主要原因;净外购电力的碳排放系数下降及用作原材料石油消费比重上升也有利于单位GDP碳排放下降;产业结构和能源消费结构总体上朝着不利于碳排放强度下降的趋势发展;生活能源消费年均增速低于GDP年均增速,有利于地区碳排放强度下降.

Analysis of Guangdong carbon emissions from energy consumption and the driving factors of its intensity change

Based on the provincial energy statistics and the rules of greenhouse gas (GHG) accounting, the CO2 emissions and its carbon intensity change from energy consumption in Guangdong Province in the period of 2005 to 2012 were analyzed in this study. Using the method of Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index, the driving factors that were behind the intensity change were investigated, which included the sectoral energy intensity, industrial structure, energy consumption structure and carbon emission co-efficients. Results showed that Guangdong’s CO2 emissions from the energy use increased by 6.3% annually, while the carbon intensity (by unit GDP) decreased 27% during the period. The CO2 intensity decrease should be attributed mainly to the declining of the energy consumption intensity across the industrial sectors. Other factors that contributed to the CO2 intensity reduction included the drop of the carbon content of the net imported electricity and the increased share of the petroleum consumption that was used as raw material. Other factors such as the industrial structure and the energy structure, were developed in a direction that lifts the CO2 intensity of the province, while the factor of the household energy consumption contributed the opposite, with a growth rate lower than that of the GDP.