中国流通业CO_2排放的因素分解和脱钩分析

参照IPCC清单中的方法估算了2000~2012年中国流通业CO2排放量;运用LMDI方法分解分析了研究期间流通业CO2排放变化的影响因素;并基于DPSIR框架构建流通业脱钩努力指数模型测度了流通业CO2排放脱钩效应.结果表明:2000~2012年间,流通业CO2排放量增长明显,期间累计排放总量为692482.37万t;产业规模效应是CO2排放增量的主要因素,能源强度效应是CO2排放减量的主要因素,分别引起CO2排放量增加了67435.72万t和减少了12358.67万t,能源结构和排放因子效应对CO2排放影响有限,分别引起CO2排放量增加了519.89万t和减少了2590.94万t;流通业CO2排放脱钩状态呈"弱脱钩—未脱钩—弱脱钩—未脱钩"的变化特征,脱钩努力指数值呈""型变化趋势;目前能源强度是决定流通业CO2排放脱钩状态的关键因素,但随着能源强度的下降幅度越来越小,未来更需要通过调整能源结构和降低排放因子来实现流通业CO2排放脱钩.

Factor decomposition and decoupling analysis on CO2 emissions: evidence from China's circulation sector.

Based on the method of IPCC list, this paper estimates the CO2 emissions of Chinese circulation industry during the period of 2000~2012. Using the method of LMDI, this paper analyzes the factors that influence the changes of CO2 emissions in the circulation industry. This paper constructs a circulation's decoupling index model based on the DPSIR framework to measure the decoupling effect of the CO2 emissions in the circulation industry. The results indicated that: during the period of 2000~2012, the CO2 emissions of Chinese circulation industry increased significantly, and the cumulative total of CO2 emissions was 6.9248237billion tons; the industrial scale effect mainly led to the increment in CO2 emissions, which amounted to 674.3572million tons. The energy intensity effect mainly led to the reduction of CO2 emissions, which amounted to 123.5867million tons. The energy structure and the emission factors have limited effect on the changes of CO2 emissions, which increased the CO2 emissions by 5.1989million tons and reduced the CO2 emissions by 25.9094million tons. The decoupling status of CO2 emissions in the circulation industry shows phasic variation, going through the process of "weak decoupling-negative decoupling-weak decoupling-negative decoupling", The variation tendency of the decoupling index value was like the shape of " ". Energy intensity is the key factor that determines the decoupling status of CO2 emissions, however, as the reduction of energy intensity become smaller and smaller, it will need to adjust the energy structure and reduce the effect of the emission factor to realize the decoupling of CO2 emissions in the circulation industry.