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基于熵值法和GM(1,1)模型的重庆城市生态系统健康评价
引用本文:郭锐利,郑钦玉,刘娟,李美荣.基于熵值法和GM(1,1)模型的重庆城市生态系统健康评价[J].中国环境科学,2012,32(6):1148-1152.
作者姓名:郭锐利  郑钦玉  刘娟  李美荣
作者单位:1. 南方山地农业教育部工程研究中心,重庆,400716
2. 南方山地农业教育部工程研究中心,重庆400716;西南大学农学与生物科技学院,重庆400715
3. 西南大学农学与生物科技学院,重庆,400715
基金项目:重庆市自然科学基金资助项目
摘    要:应用信息熵值反映数据本身的效用值来计算指标权重系数,建立熵权综合评价模型,对重庆城市生态系统健康进行了评价.根据评价结果和灰理论数学建模特点,建立GM(1,1)灰色预测模型,对重庆市生态系统健康进行了动态预测分析.结果表明:2005~2009年期间,重庆城市生态系统健康总体水平良好,其中各要素指数评价大小依次是活力指数、恢复力指数、组织结构指数、服务功能指数、人群生活指数;2010~2015年期间,重庆城市生态系统健康综合评价值将以e0.1268的增速保持良好发展态势.此外,建立以熵权综合评价为基础的GM(1,1)灰色预测模型对城市生态系统健康进行评价,能够得出更客观、更全面的评价结果.

关 键 词:熵值法  灰色预测模型  城市生态系统健康  重庆市  
收稿时间:2011-10-11;

Ecosystem health assessment of Chongqing City based on entropy and GM (1,1) model
GUO Rui-li , ZHENG Qin-yu , LIU Juan , LI Mei-rong.Ecosystem health assessment of Chongqing City based on entropy and GM (1,1) model[J].China Environmental Science,2012,32(6):1148-1152.
Authors:GUO Rui-li  ZHENG Qin-yu  LIU Juan  LI Mei-rong
Institution:1.Engineering Research Center of South Upland Agriculture,Ministry of Education,Chongqing 400716,China;2.College of Agronomy and Biotechnology,Southwest University,Chongqing 400715,China)
Abstract:Entropy-comprehensive evaluation model was established to assess the health level of urban ecosystem in Chongqing,China,the coefficients of weight index were derived from the available value of data reflecting the information entropy.Based on the evaluation results and mathematical modeling theory,GM(1,1) grey prediction model was established to make dynamic trend analysis of ecological health in Chongqing City.The experimental results indicated that the overall level of urban ecosystem health was continuously improved from 2005 to 2009,the elements index arranged in order of evaluation value size were vigor index,resilience index,organization structure index,serviceability index and people living index.From these results and model,it could be concluded that the health level of Chongqing city ecosystem will rise continuously by the rate of e0.1268 during 2010 to 2015.GM(1,1) grey prediction model based on entropy-comprehensive evaluation could have an more objective and comprehensive assessment of urban ecosystem health.
Keywords:entropy  grey prediction model  urban ecosystem health  Chongqing City
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