2006～2012年珠江三角洲地区O_3污染对人群健康的影响

通过检索国内流行病学研究成果,Meta分析得到综合的暴露-反应系数后,利用粤港珠江三角洲区域空气监控网络监测的O3浓度,基于相对危险度模型对2006~2012年珠江三角洲地区归因于O3污染的人群健康影响进行评估.Meta分析结果表明,O3浓度每升高10μg/m3,非意外死亡率?心血管疾病死亡率和呼吸系统疾病死亡率分别上升0.45%(95%置信区间CI:0.40%~0.50%)?0.70%(95%CI:0.57%~0.86%)和0.64%(95%CI:0.47%~0.86%).人群健康影响评估表明,由于暴露人口和O3浓度的增加,珠江三角洲地区归因O3污染的死亡人数呈上升趋势,2012年归因死亡人数约为2006年的3倍,其中O3浓度的增加对归因死亡增量的贡献达2/3以上;2006~2012年区域年均归因的非意外死亡?心血管疾病死亡和呼吸系统疾病死亡分别为3982(95%CI:3543~4420)?1894(95%CI:1546~2319)和1128(95%CI:830~1508)人.对评估模型的敏感性试验表明选择不同的参数,评估结果有较大的偏差,因此在以后相关研究工作中需要深化参数适用性的探讨.

Human health impact of exposure to ozone pollutant in Pearl River Delta region during 2006~2012

Comprehensive exposure-response coefficients were obtained based on Meta-analysis of epidemiologic studies, and then by using ozone concentration data from Pearl River Delta regional air quality monitoring network, human health impacts of ozone pollutant in Pearl River Delta region during 2006~2012were assessed based on Relative Risk Model. The results of Meta-analysis show that as the concentration of ozone increased 10mg/m3, the mortality for non-accidental, cardiovascular disease and respiratory disease increased 0.45% (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.40%~0.50%), 0.70% (95% CI: 0.57%~0.86%) and 0.64% (95% CI: 0.47%~0.86%), respectively. Health impact assessments indicate that due to the growth of ozone concentration and exposed population, the ozone-attributable mortality was on the 3times rise from 2006 to 2012, and the rising ozone concentration had contributed more than 2/3 of the mortality increment. The estimated annual average numbers of attributable mortality of non-accidental, cardiovascular disease and respiratory disease were 3982 (95% CI: 3543~4420), 1894 (95% CI: 1546~2319) and 1128 (95% CI: 830~1508), respectively. Sensitivity analysis reveals that the mortality estimation appeared large deviation as parameter change, demonstrating urgent request of more accuracy parameters.